Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   </li>
<li>The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> appears negligible.</li>
<li>Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   
The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) appears negligible.
Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in kakaopay, L&amp;F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in kakaopay, L&amp;F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Kakaopay, L&F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.</li>
<li>Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.</li>
</ul>


Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.
Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.
Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.


Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , China Mobile (941 HK) , Softbank Group (9984 JP)



Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   </li>
<li>Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   
Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSD LI)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Kakaopay, L&F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in kakaopay, L&F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

​United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Kakaopay, L&F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in kakaopay, L&F, NAVER, SK Hynix, Alteogen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

​Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

​TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...