Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.  </li>
<li>Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged. </li>
<li>TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV). </li>
</ul>


Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.  
Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged. 
TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV). 


Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KRX’s prelim review forced Biologics into tough commitments: no share swaps or carve-out IPOs for three years, effectively blocking any Samsung C&amp;T stake sell-down and overlapping-listing risks.</li>
<li>FSS appears satisfied with Biologics’ aggressive commitments, but may push for more—most likely a lock-up from Samsung C&amp;T preventing share sales in both parent and spinco for a set period.</li>
<li>Trading setup remains short Samsung C&amp;T; recent Life bill chatter is noise. Samsung governance reform is low-priority, and Biologics’ aggressive spinco lock-ups reinforce C&amp;T as the near-term underperformer.</li>
</ul>


KRX’s prelim review forced Biologics into tough commitments: no share swaps or carve-out IPOs for three years, effectively blocking any Samsung C&amp;T stake sell-down and overlapping-listing risks.
FSS appears satisfied with Biologics’ aggressive commitments, but may push for more—most likely a lock-up from Samsung C&amp;T preventing share sales in both parent and spinco for a set period.
Trading setup remains short Samsung C&amp;T; recent Life bill chatter is noise. Samsung governance reform is low-priority, and Biologics’ aggressive spinco lock-ups reinforce C&amp;T as the near-term underperformer.


Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota specializes in lightweight and optimized artificial intelligence (AI) technology.</li>
<li>The IPO price range is from 7,600 won to 9,100 won. At this price range, the company's expected market cap is from 163 billion won to 196 billion won. </li>
<li>Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance AI models even on resource-constrained edge devices, centered around its proprietary AI model optimization platform, NetsPresso®.</li>
</ul>


Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota specializes in lightweight and optimized artificial intelligence (AI) technology.
The IPO price range is from 7,600 won to 9,100 won. At this price range, the company's expected market cap is from 163 billion won to 196 billion won. 
Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance AI models even on resource-constrained edge devices, centered around its proprietary AI model optimization platform, NetsPresso®.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the October rebalance starting in two weeks, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 1.5-4.7x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>On average, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the last 3 months and could reverse some of the changes from the April rebalance.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the October rebalance starting in two weeks, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 1.5-4.7x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
On average, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the last 3 months and could reverse some of the changes from the April rebalance.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">AAPL US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">GOOG US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">META US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>
</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.


OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225


OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

U.S. government invests $8.9bn in Intel for 9.9% stake, boosting company sentiment and stock value in the short term- near-term optics positive,...

Patrick Liao

Nota IPO Preview

Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance...

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

There could be 2 changes in Oct. The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the last 3 months and could reverse...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

​U.S. government invests $8.9bn in Intel for 9.9% stake, boosting company sentiment and stock value in the short term- near-term optics positive,...

Patrick Liao

Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected

This post covers Samsung Biologics’ spinco filing, which imposes a far-tougher-than-expected post-listing share swap lock-up.

Sanghyun Park

Nota IPO Preview

Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance...

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

There could be 2 changes in Oct. The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the last 3 months and could reverse...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

​Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti

U.S. government invests $8.9bn in Intel for 9.9% stake, boosting company sentiment and stock value in the short term- near-term optics positive,...

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.