Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.</li>
<li>Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.</li>
<li>Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.</li>
</ul>


If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.
Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.
Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.


Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. </li>
<li>Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. </li>
<li>We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. 
Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. 
We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.


No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD515.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD739mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD515.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD739mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We launch the Emmer Capital Asia ex Japan Equity Model Portfolio. We shall measure the absolute and relative performance (vi-a-vis MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Index) of the portfolio and rebalance it monthly.</li>
<li>Our sector and market choices are governed by macro-economic and policy considerations. Asian consumption support, inflation divergence strengthening Asian currencies and market leading domestic exposures are some of the themes.</li>
<li>We are overweight HK/China, India, Korea; underweight Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, communication services and technology, despite the latter's global footprint. We prefer high ROEs and dividend yields.</li>
</ul>


We launch the Emmer Capital Asia ex Japan Equity Model Portfolio. We shall measure the absolute and relative performance (vi-a-vis MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Index) of the portfolio and rebalance it monthly.
Our sector and market choices are governed by macro-economic and policy considerations. Asian consumption support, inflation divergence strengthening Asian currencies and market leading domestic exposures are some of the themes.
We are overweight HK/China, India, Korea; underweight Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, communication services and technology, despite the latter's global footprint. We prefer high ROEs and dividend yields.


Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Price Gauge
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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

This post covers the virtual finalization of Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 buyback disposal plan and highlights two key trading implications.

Sanghyun Park

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

Emmer Capital's Asia ex JP Equity Model Portfolio is Overwt on HK/CN, India, Korea & underwt Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, comm...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

This post covers the virtual finalization of Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 buyback disposal plan and highlights two key trading implications.

Sanghyun Park

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 16th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

Emmer Capital's Asia ex JP Equity Model Portfolio is Overwt on HK/CN, India, Korea & underwt Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, comm...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...