Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Smartphone demand remains slow, that contributes to weak outlook for commodity DRAM.  Nvidia / Mediatek and Qualcomm AI PC chips should be launched mid-2025. </li>
<li>Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity doubles, Data Center GPU revenue will double? TSMC 2nm-16A roadmap on track.  </li>
<li>SK Hynix is now ahead of Samsung in HBM, DDR5, 3D NAND and SSD. Meanwhile, Samsung is buying back shares. </li>
</ul>


Smartphone demand remains slow, that contributes to weak outlook for commodity DRAM.  Nvidia / Mediatek and Qualcomm AI PC chips should be launched mid-2025. 
Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity doubles, Data Center GPU revenue will double? TSMC 2nm-16A roadmap on track.  
SK Hynix is now ahead of Samsung in HBM, DDR5, 3D NAND and SSD. Meanwhile, Samsung is buying back shares. 


Tech News This Week: Smartphone, Mediatek, Nvidia, Qualcomm, TSMC, Super Micro, SK Hynix, Samsung

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at 750 billion yen ($4.8 billion), down nearly 50% from the initial market value estimates about 2-3 months ago. </li>
<li>Kioxia had revenue of 909.4 billion Yen (up 84.6% YoY) and EBITDA of 449.6 billion Yen in 1H FY24, driven by the recovering demand for data center and enterprise SSDs.</li>
<li>As of 2Q 2024, Samsung Electronics was the largest player in the global NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market, followed by SK Group (22.1%), and Kioxia (13.8%).</li>
</ul>


Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at 750 billion yen ($4.8 billion), down nearly 50% from the initial market value estimates about 2-3 months ago. 
Kioxia had revenue of 909.4 billion Yen (up 84.6% YoY) and EBITDA of 449.6 billion Yen in 1H FY24, driven by the recovering demand for data center and enterprise SSDs.
As of 2Q 2024, Samsung Electronics was the largest player in the global NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market, followed by SK Group (22.1%), and Kioxia (13.8%).


<ul>
<li>Kioxia is getting ready to complete its IPO in Japan as soon as in October. Kioxia's valuation is expected to exceed JPY 1.5 trillion (about USD 10.3 billion).</li>
<li>SK Hynix's stake in Kioxia (through Bain led consortium) is 19%. SK Hynix's stake in Kioxia would rise to 34% if the CBs are converted into equity. </li>
<li>The IPO of Kioxia has mixed implications for SK Hynix which is a major shareholder. However, the IPO of Kioxia has a more direct negative impact on Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia is getting ready to complete its IPO in Japan as soon as in October. Kioxia's valuation is expected to exceed JPY 1.5 trillion (about USD 10.3 billion).
SK Hynix's stake in Kioxia (through Bain led consortium) is 19%. SK Hynix's stake in Kioxia would rise to 34% if the CBs are converted into equity. 
The IPO of Kioxia has mixed implications for SK Hynix which is a major shareholder. However, the IPO of Kioxia has a more direct negative impact on Samsung Electronics.


Initial Thoughts on the Kioxia IPO - Impact on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.</li>
<li>The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.</li>
<li>The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.</li>
</ul>


The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.
The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.
The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.


Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Inspur Electronic Infmtn Indtry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>India's top player in the industry notes slow passenger EV sales, but sees a boom in commercial EVs.</li><li>Nvidia surpasses revenue estimates with strong data center expansion, leading to mixed analyst reactions.</li><li>China accelerates efforts for chip independence to lessen reliance on US technology in response to potential policies of the new Trump administration.</li></ul>

India's top player in the industry notes slow passenger EV sales, but sees a boom in commercial EVs.Nvidia surpasses revenue estimates with strong data center expansion, leading to mixed analyst reactions.China accelerates efforts for chip independence to lessen reliance on US technology in response to potential policies of the new Trump administration.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Nov-2024): Commercial EVs thrive despite passenger slowdown.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Tech News This Week: Smartphone, Mediatek, Nvidia, Qualcomm, TSMC, Super Micro, SK Hynix, Samsung

Smartphone demand remains slow. Nvidia and Qualcomm AI PC chips launched mid 2025. Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity...

Nicolas Baratte

Kioxia IPO Preview

Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at 750 billion yen ($4.8 billion), down nearly 50% from the initial market value...

Douglas Kim

Initial Thoughts on the Kioxia IPO - Impact on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics

Kioxia plans to complete its IPO on 18 December, valuing Kioxia at ¥750 billion ($4.8 billion). The IPO is priced at ¥1,390 ($9) per share. The...

Douglas Kim

Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs

Next Monday, the 25th, the National Assembly will decide on separate dividend taxation—definitely keep an eye on Samsung Electronics preferred stock.

Sanghyun Park

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Nov-2024): Commercial EVs thrive despite passenger slowdown.

Passenger EV sales lag behind, but commercial EVs thrive; Nvidia surpasses revenue estimates, sparking analyst reactions; China accelerates chip...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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