Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 2nd phase of the buyback, around 3T KRW with a 3-month window, could drop this week, likely by mid- or end-week.</li>
<li>The market's worried Samsung might not retire the shares this time and could handle them differently.</li>
<li>The latest talk is that Samsung will retire the shares immediately, like Phase 1. This could be an inflection point for solid short-term price action—time to set up positions.</li>
</ul>


The 2nd phase of the buyback, around 3T KRW with a 3-month window, could drop this week, likely by mid- or end-week.
The market's worried Samsung might not retire the shares this time and could handle them differently.
The latest talk is that Samsung will retire the shares immediately, like Phase 1. This could be an inflection point for solid short-term price action—time to set up positions.


Samsung's 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.</li>
<li>First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new <strong>Stargate Project.</strong>
</li>
<li>Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional <strong>total shareholder returns</strong> measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.

Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. 


Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>China escalates tensions with the US by imposing tariffs on American goods and launching antitrust probe into Google.</li><li>HTC's $250M XR deal with Google raises concerns in the industry over potential impacts on the market and competition.</li><li>Samsung Display's sales have dropped by half in the past 10 years, while Samsung looks forward to the 2025 launch of Galaxy S25.</li></ul>

China escalates tensions with the US by imposing tariffs on American goods and launching antitrust probe into Google.HTC's $250M XR deal with Google raises concerns in the industry over potential impacts on the market and competition.Samsung Display's sales have dropped by half in the past 10 years, while Samsung looks forward to the 2025 launch of Galaxy S25.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Weak results again in 4Q24. Weak outlook for 1H25 as Mobile, PC demand remains weak (ie DRAM, NAND, Display).</li>
<li>Samsung expects its “optimized” HBM3E to ramp from 2Q25.  HBM4 in 2H25. Logic 2nm production in 2026.</li>
<li>The stock is cheapish at ~8x 2025-26EPS but with a lack of catalyst, visibility, effectiveness of managements changes. Revisit mid-2025.</li>
</ul>


Weak results again in 4Q24. Weak outlook for 1H25 as Mobile, PC demand remains weak (ie DRAM, NAND, Display).
Samsung expects its “optimized” HBM3E to ramp from 2Q25.  HBM4 in 2H25. Logic 2nm production in 2026.
The stock is cheapish at ~8x 2025-26EPS but with a lack of catalyst, visibility, effectiveness of managements changes. Revisit mid-2025.


Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Samsung's 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking

This post dives into the latest market intel on the timing and structure of Samsung Electronics' 10T KRW buyback Phase 2.

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My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

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Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Global server market trends in 4Q 2024, with China imposing tariffs on US goods and launching antitrust probe into Google, Samsung gearing up for...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

weak result and outlook for 1H25 due to weak PC, Smartphone, TV demand. Expects improvements with HBM3E and HBM4 in 2025, 2nm in 2026. Stock is...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung's 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking

This post dives into the latest market intel on the timing and structure of Samsung Electronics' 10T KRW buyback Phase 2.

Sanghyun Park

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

​Samsung Electronics' shares rise as potential alliance for Stargate Project and increased shareholder returns speculation boost investor confidence.

Douglas Kim

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Global server market trends in 4Q 2024, with China imposing tariffs on US goods and launching antitrust probe into Google, Samsung gearing up for...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

weak result and outlook for 1H25 due to weak PC, Smartphone, TV demand. Expects improvements with HBM3E and HBM4 in 2025, 2nm in 2026. Stock is...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics' shares rise as potential alliance for Stargate Project and increased shareholder returns speculation boost investor confidence.