Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Bobcat Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat.</li>
<li>The same shareholders had earlier sold in Nov 22, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/doosan-bobcat-placement-momentum-is-strong-but-past-deals-have-been-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85256" rel="noopener">Doosan Bobcat Placement - Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag</a>. That deal didn’t do well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat.
The same shareholders had earlier sold in Nov 22, see Doosan Bobcat Placement - Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag. That deal didn’t do well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shares will be credited to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>'s shareholders on 1 March.   </li>
<li>While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. </li>
<li>New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.</li>
</ul>


The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)'s shareholders on 1 March.   
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>’s EGM on 8 December requires majority shareholder approval of two ordinary resolutions. The IFA notes that the transaction terms are “<em>not prejudicial</em>” to minorities.</li>
<li>Keppel shareholders will be supportive due to attractive terms. The other key conditions precedent is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shareholders and regulatory approvals (SGX-ST and Maritime Port Authority of Singapore). </li>
<li>The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30 per share, which is 12% above the last close.</li>
</ul>



Keppel Corp (KEP SP)’s EGM on 8 December requires majority shareholder approval of two ordinary resolutions. The IFA notes that the transaction terms are “not prejudicial” to minorities.
Keppel shareholders will be supportive due to attractive terms. The other key conditions precedent is Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders and regulatory approvals (SGX-ST and Maritime Port Authority of Singapore). 
The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30 per share, which is 12% above the last close.


Keppel (KEP SP) Vote on Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine Transaction on 8 Dec

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

<ul>
<li>The terms for the proposed combination of Keppel O&amp;M and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> were announced. The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. </li>
<li>The proposed combination will require <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> and Sembcorp Marine shareholder approvals at separate EGMs and is expected to close in 4Q2022.</li>
<li>The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as the proposed combination creates S$9.4 billion of value, which is around 80% of Keppel’s market cap at the last close.</li>
</ul>


The terms for the proposed combination of Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) were announced. The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. 
The proposed combination will require Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Sembcorp Marine shareholder approvals at separate EGMs and is expected to close in 4Q2022.
The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as the proposed combination creates S$9.4 billion of value, which is around 80% of Keppel’s market cap at the last close.


Keppel: A Massive Winner from Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Combination

South Korea

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

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Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS)

Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat. This is a clean-up trade.

Sumeet Singh

Keppel (KEP SP) Vote on Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine Transaction on 8 Dec

The transaction is a win-win for both sets of shareholders. The vote requires majority shareholder approval. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30...

Arun George

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

Keppel: A Massive Winner from Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Combination

The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat. This is a clean-up trade.

Sumeet Singh

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

In the short term, Keppel's distribution in-specie of new SMM shares creates an overhang. Longer-term new SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion...

Arun George

Keppel (KEP SP) Vote on Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine Transaction on 8 Dec

The transaction is a win-win for both sets of shareholders. The vote requires majority shareholder approval. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30...

Arun George

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

Keppel: A Massive Winner from Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Combination

The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as...

Arun George