FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

iShares MSCI Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.</li><li>Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.</li><li>Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Santos plans to raise atleast A$585m through its retail shortfall bookbuild. We had earlier covered the deal and run it through our framework. The insight was titled, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ridding-itself-of-the-spectre-of-scepter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1772">Ridding itself of the Spectre of Scepter</a>, the company did manage to rid itself of the Scepter bid but also seemed to have rid itself of a lot of investors as well!The shares haven't performed well, to say the least, since the deal was announced and are now trading only 5.5% above the rights price. The shares are undoubtedly cheap…

Santos plans to raise atleast A$585m through its retail shortfall bookbuild. We had earlier covered the deal and run it through our framework. The insight was titled, Ridding itself of the Spectre of Scepter, the company did manage to rid itself of the Scepter bid but also seemed to have rid itself of a lot of investors as well!The shares haven't performed well, to say the least, since the deal was announced and are now trading only 5.5% above the rights price. The shares are undoubtedly cheap…

Stock Is Cheap and Could Rally if the Book Is Well Covered

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

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Santos Ltd (STO AU)

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett’s Alpha. The authors attribute Warren Buffett’s...

Sam Ferraro

Stock Is Cheap and Could Rally if the Book Is Well Covered

Santos plans to raise atleast A$585m through its retail shortfall bookbuild. We had earlier covered the deal and run it through our framework. The...

Sumeet Singh

AmpGFX - CAD and AUD in the hot-seat

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday. In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

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