Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SDRL reported third quarter results exceeding expectations and announcing slight extensions to when near-term contracts would expire.</li>
<li>There had been minimal news from SDRL to expect contract extensions. SDRL’s peers had been reporting a slowing in contract activity.</li>
<li>The free cash flow SDRL is generating is being used for stock buy backs with the authorization doubled to a total of $500 million.</li>
</ul>


SDRL reported third quarter results exceeding expectations and announcing slight extensions to when near-term contracts would expire.
There had been minimal news from SDRL to expect contract extensions. SDRL’s peers had been reporting a slowing in contract activity.
The free cash flow SDRL is generating is being used for stock buy backs with the authorization doubled to a total of $500 million.


<ul>
<li>There has been little change in day rates since Seadrill (SDRL) reported second quarter results with the Company having two vessels with contracts expiring next month</li>
<li>The only news flow since SDRL reported second quarter results has been about the Company regularly buying back stock</li>
<li>The two vessels with contracts expiring are currently in different geographies</li>
</ul>


There has been little change in day rates since Seadrill (SDRL) reported second quarter results with the Company having two vessels with contracts expiring next month
The only news flow since SDRL reported second quarter results has been about the Company regularly buying back stock
The two vessels with contracts expiring are currently in different geographies


<ul>
<li>SDRL reporting second quarter results provided greater insight on the contribution of Aquadrill to SDRL’s financials and sets the course for how the business could benefit from current day rates</li>
<li>SDRL has two drill ships set for contract expiration at year end and another two more vessels expected off contract by end of 2024, not including those with contract options</li>
<li>Our new price target of $62 from $50 values SDRL in line with its peers even though SDRL is not levered</li>
</ul>


SDRL reporting second quarter results provided greater insight on the contribution of Aquadrill to SDRL’s financials and sets the course for how the business could benefit from current day rates
SDRL has two drill ships set for contract expiration at year end and another two more vessels expected off contract by end of 2024, not including those with contract options
Our new price target of $62 from $50 values SDRL in line with its peers even though SDRL is not levered


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

United States

Seadrill Limited operates as an oil and gas field service company. The Company offers drilling contracting services to unlock oil and gas resources for clients across harsh and benign locations. Seadrill serves customers worldwide.

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Seadrill (SDRL US)

SDRL: Course for Free Cash Flow

SDRL continues to exceed our expectations on profitability and free cash flow. SDRL announced contract extensions for several vessels, including...

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: The Calm Ahead of News Flow

We are anticipating contract news as third quarter results are announced in November coinciding with the two vessels coming off contracts

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: Attractive Value, PT to $62

Day rates continue to support our investment thesis for adjusted EBITDA rising in 2024 and more so in 2025. SDRL has an unlevered balance sheet...

BWS Financial Inc

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

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