Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A 1.5% gain last week lifted the benchmark to 38,403, its highest in four months; Semiconductor stocks surged</li>
<li>Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 1.39%, while the yen fell 1.1% to ¥145.32 against the dollar - its weakest in three weeks.</li>
<li>Sega Sammy surged 18% this week following a well-received management meeting that emphasized clear strategic direction and strong shareholder engagement.</li>
</ul>


A 1.5% gain last week lifted the benchmark to 38,403, its highest in four months; Semiconductor stocks surged
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 1.39%, while the yen fell 1.1% to ¥145.32 against the dollar - its weakest in three weeks.
Sega Sammy surged 18% this week following a well-received management meeting that emphasized clear strategic direction and strong shareholder engagement.


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei Is Back in Fashion

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.</li>
<li>Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.</li>
<li>Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.</li>
</ul>


Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.
Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.
Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.


Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets displayed resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4% and the Topix climbing 3.7%, buoyed by a weaker yen that bolstered exporter gains</li>
<li>Honda’s stock soared 25% this week, driven by the announcement of a massive share buyback of up to ¥1.1 trillion</li>
<li>Sega Sammy’s stock surged 18% this week, fueled by the stellar box office performance of the film Sonic × Shadow</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets displayed resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4% and the Topix climbing 3.7%, buoyed by a weaker yen that bolstered exporter gains
Honda’s stock soared 25% this week, driven by the announcement of a massive share buyback of up to ¥1.1 trillion
Sega Sammy’s stock surged 18% this week, fueled by the stellar box office performance of the film Sonic × Shadow


Japan Weekly | Market Resilience - Honda, MMC, Sega

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Japan

SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company established through the merger of Sega and Sammy.  The Group mainly develops and manufactures commercial-use video game machine, home-use video game software, and pachinko pinball machine. Sega Sammy Holdings also operates amusement parks.

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Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 JP)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei Is Back in Fashion

Stock market benchmarks rise, semiconductor stocks surge; Japan's bond yield dips, yen weakens; Sega Sammy up 18% on strategic direction and...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Weekly | Market Resilience - Honda, MMC, Sega

Japanese markets showed strong resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix both climbing significantly, boosted by a weaker yen benefiting...

Mark Chadwick

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei Is Back in Fashion

​Stock market benchmarks rise, semiconductor stocks surge; Japan's bond yield dips, yen weakens; Sega Sammy up 18% on strategic direction and...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Weekly | Market Resilience - Honda, MMC, Sega

​Japanese markets showed strong resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix both climbing significantly, boosted by a weaker yen benefiting...

Mark Chadwick

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Stock market benchmarks rise, semiconductor stocks surge; Japan's bond yield dips, yen weakens; Sega Sammy up 18% on strategic direction and...

Japanese markets showed strong resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 and Topix both climbing significantly, boosted by a weaker yen benefiting...