Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&amp;C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.</li>
<li>December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.</li>
<li>Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.</li>
</ul>


PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&amp;C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.


Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.</li>
<li>Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.</li>
<li>Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.</li>
</ul>


We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.


Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> raised around US$125m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>We have looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) raised around US$125m in its Korean IPO. 
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
We have looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Trading - KDIC Stake Overhang Remains, Yield Might Help

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).</li>
<li>SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. </li>
<li>Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.</li>
</ul>


The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).
SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. 
Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. </li>
<li>Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. 
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. 


South Korea

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Company provide insurance services. The Company offers claims adjusting, insurance plans, credit guarantee, loss prevention services, insurance exchanges, claims processing, self insurance funds, and other services. Seoul Guarantee Insurance conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)

Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

This post flags a new passive flow trade kicking in on Korea’s divvy policy momentum, with upcoming index reshuffles and strong dividend trends...

Sanghyun Park

Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect

Korea's financial regulators unveils new IPO allocation and delisting rules: key implications and what to expect moving forward.

Sanghyun Park

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Trading - KDIC Stake Overhang Remains, Yield Might Help

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) raised around US$125m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dymanics.

Sumeet Singh

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be...

Douglas Kim

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

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