IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> has entered a definite agreement with Bain Capital at US$8.60 per ADS, 7.5% higher than its previous offer of US$8.00 per ADS.</li>
<li>Completion is conditional on shareholder approval, dissenting shareholders representing less than 12% of outstanding shares and any applicable regulatory approvals. The completion conditions should be met.</li>
<li>CMC’s offer, while higher, does not meet the "<em>superior proposal</em>" criterion. At the last close price and December-end completion, the gross and annualised spread is 6.0% and 16.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Chindata Group (CD US) has entered a definite agreement with Bain Capital at US$8.60 per ADS, 7.5% higher than its previous offer of US$8.00 per ADS.
Completion is conditional on shareholder approval, dissenting shareholders representing less than 12% of outstanding shares and any applicable regulatory approvals. The completion conditions should be met.
CMC’s offer, while higher, does not meet the "superior proposal" criterion. At the last close price and December-end completion, the gross and annualised spread is 6.0% and 16.6%, respectively.


Chindata (CD US): Bain’s Binding Proposal at US$8.60 Per ADS

<ul>
<li>China Merchants Capital (CMC) <a href="https://en.cmcapital.com.cn/list/669" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosed</a> a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.</li>
<li>Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.</li>
<li>CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.</li>
</ul>


China Merchants Capital (CMC) disclosed a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire Chindata Group (CD US) at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.
Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.
CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.


Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qingdao-ainnovation-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35405:1" rel="noopener">Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group (2121 HK)</a> was listed on 27th Jan 2022, with its one-year lockup expiring on 27th January 2023.</li>
<li>Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group is an AI solutions provider offering full-stack AI-based products and solutions.</li>
<li>Coming up for one-year lockup expiry are the pre-IPO shareholders. Bulk of them are in the money as some have invested as early as 2018.</li>
</ul>



Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group (2121 HK) was listed on 27th Jan 2022, with its one-year lockup expiring on 27th January 2023.
Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group is an AI solutions provider offering full-stack AI-based products and solutions.
Coming up for one-year lockup expiry are the pre-IPO shareholders. Bulk of them are in the money as some have invested as early as 2018.


AInnovation Technology Lock-Up - US$670m Worth of Pre-IPO Investment Is Still Well in the Money

China

Shanghai Baosight Software Co., Ltd. provides information technology services. The Company develops automation and information computer software for metallurgy, transportation, electric power generation, banking, and other industries. Shanghai Baosight Software also sells computer hardware and provides system integration and maintenance services.

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Shanghai Baosight Software (600845 CH)

Chindata (CD US): Bain’s Binding Proposal at US$8.60 Per ADS

Bain's revised offer is still unattractive, but the completion conditions should be met. At the last close price and December-end completion, the...

Arun George

Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer

CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to...

Arun George

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

AInnovation Technology Lock-Up - US$670m Worth of Pre-IPO Investment Is Still Well in the Money

Qingdao Ainnovation Technology Group (2121 HK) was listed on 27th Jan 2023, with its one-year lockup expiring on 27th January 2023. Coming up for...

Clarence Chu

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