HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.</li>
<li>TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.</li>
<li>The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.</li>
</ul>


At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.
TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.
The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma received approval for Fovinaciclib Citrate Capsules for certain types of breast cancers. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate demonstrated semaglutide-beating result in Phase 3 trial being conducted by Lilly.</li>
<li>Astellas Pharma got conditional approval of Izervay in Japan. SK Biopharmaceuticals announced positive result from Phase 3 trial evaluating cenobamate for Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic (PGTC) Seizures.</li>
<li>Alteogen’s partner Merck moved one step ahead toward European approval of subcutaneous version of Keytruda. HK inno.N has launched its acid-related gastrointestinal diseases drug, PCAB in India.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma received approval for Fovinaciclib Citrate Capsules for certain types of breast cancers. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate demonstrated semaglutide-beating result in Phase 3 trial being conducted by Lilly.
Astellas Pharma got conditional approval of Izervay in Japan. SK Biopharmaceuticals announced positive result from Phase 3 trial evaluating cenobamate for Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic (PGTC) Seizures.
Alteogen’s partner Merck moved one step ahead toward European approval of subcutaneous version of Keytruda. HK inno.N has launched its acid-related gastrointestinal diseases drug, PCAB in India.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 21)– Fosun Pharm, Chugai, Astellas, SK Biopharm, Alteogen, HK Inno

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Trump administration is considering putting “severe restrictions” on the drugs from China, which would negative for China biotech that mainly relies on licensing-out model. We share our views below.</li>
<li>The key to assessing the future profitability of innovative drugs in China lies in their ability to control costs, not just in the growth of product sales.</li>
<li>Sihuan achieved a turnaround and is undervalued. Just "medical aesthetics + cash" worth RMB15.3 billion valuation. The innovative drug business will provide decent upside potential, but with some concerns behind. </li>
</ul>


The Trump administration is considering putting “severe restrictions” on the drugs from China, which would negative for China biotech that mainly relies on licensing-out model. We share our views below.
The key to assessing the future profitability of innovative drugs in China lies in their ability to control costs, not just in the growth of product sales.
Sihuan achieved a turnaround and is undervalued. Just "medical aesthetics + cash" worth RMB15.3 billion valuation. The innovative drug business will provide decent upside potential, but with some concerns behind. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.14) - Trump to Put Restrictions on Chinese Drugs, Sihuan Is Undervalued

<ul>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. Phase 2 trial of Lead candidate of TransThera Sciences, Tinengotinib in combination with Fulvestrant for breast cancer got approval.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics signed CMO contract worth $1.3B with a U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Daiichi Sankyo reported positive clinical trial result for ifinatamab deruxtecan in SCLC.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical’s Halol facility is under import alert, resulting in the refusal of shipments from the facility into the U.S. Biocon inaugurates its first U.S. manufacturing facility in New Jersey.</li>
</ul>


CSPC Pharmaceutical’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. Phase 2 trial of Lead candidate of TransThera Sciences, Tinengotinib in combination with Fulvestrant for breast cancer got approval.
Samsung Biologics signed CMO contract worth $1.3B with a U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Daiichi Sankyo reported positive clinical trial result for ifinatamab deruxtecan in SCLC.
Sun Pharmaceutical’s Halol facility is under import alert, resulting in the refusal of shipments from the facility into the U.S. Biocon inaugurates its first U.S. manufacturing facility in New Jersey.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After excluding gains on the disposal of United Family Healthcare, profitability of main business was disappointing.The revenue decline confirms that Fosun Pharma is facing pressure. Short-term performance hasn’t truly improved.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma will continue to sell unprofitable assets to alleviate debt pressure and optimize business structure, which will be the short-term main theme. Fosun Pharma is still in adjustment period</li>
<li>Whether high profit growth can be sustainable in long term is uncertain, which depends on if Henlius is able to achieve high growth to offset the negative impact of VBP.</li>
</ul>


After excluding gains on the disposal of United Family Healthcare, profitability of main business was disappointing.The revenue decline confirms that Fosun Pharma is facing pressure. Short-term performance hasn’t truly improved.
Fosun Pharma will continue to sell unprofitable assets to alleviate debt pressure and optimize business structure, which will be the short-term main theme. Fosun Pharma is still in adjustment period
Whether high profit growth can be sustainable in long term is uncertain, which depends on if Henlius is able to achieve high growth to offset the negative impact of VBP.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK/600196.CH) 25H1 - The Performance Has Not Truly Improved

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 21)– Fosun Pharm, Chugai, Astellas, SK Biopharm, Alteogen, HK Inno

Fosun Pharma and Astellas got new drug approvals. Chugai and SK Biopharma announced positive Phase 3 trial result. Alteogen’s technology powered...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.14) - Trump to Put Restrictions on Chinese Drugs, Sihuan Is Undervalued

Trump may impose restrictions on China drugs, impacting China biotech reliant on licensing model. Profitability in China biotech hinges on cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

CSPC Pharma’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. TransThera got trial approval for lead candidate. Samsung Bio signed $1.3B...

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK/600196.CH) 25H1 - The Performance Has Not Truly Improved

The revenue decline confirms that Fosun Pharma is facing pressure and has to continue to sell unprofitable assets to alleviate debt pressure....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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Market Cap (USDm)

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China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

​Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 21)– Fosun Pharm, Chugai, Astellas, SK Biopharm, Alteogen, HK Inno

Fosun Pharma and Astellas got new drug approvals. Chugai and SK Biopharma announced positive Phase 3 trial result. Alteogen’s technology powered...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.14) - Trump to Put Restrictions on Chinese Drugs, Sihuan Is Undervalued

​Trump may impose restrictions on China drugs, impacting China biotech reliant on licensing model. Profitability in China biotech hinges on cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

CSPC Pharma’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. TransThera got trial approval for lead candidate. Samsung Bio signed $1.3B...

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK/600196.CH) 25H1 - The Performance Has Not Truly Improved

The revenue decline confirms that Fosun Pharma is facing pressure and has to continue to sell unprofitable assets to alleviate debt pressure....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Trump may impose restrictions on China drugs, impacting China biotech reliant on licensing model. Profitability in China biotech hinges on cost...