HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to the industry-wide overhaul and investigation resulting from the increase in business bribery/tax evasion/medical malpractice/customer complaints.</li>
<li>We found an interesting phenomenon – Investors dare not buy biotech, opting instead for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) companies, scientific research service companies and medical service companies.</li>
<li>If investors still want to trade CXO, here are two suggestions.</li>
</ul>


The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to the industry-wide overhaul and investigation resulting from the increase in business bribery/tax evasion/medical malpractice/customer complaints.
We found an interesting phenomenon – Investors dare not buy biotech, opting instead for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) companies, scientific research service companies and medical service companies.
If investors still want to trade CXO, here are two suggestions.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.25) - CXO Trading Strategy, Plunge in Medical Beauty, Belief in Biotech

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genuine-biotech-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36220:1" rel="noopener">Genuine Biotech (GBL HK)</a> has filed for HK listing. Its Azvudine received NMPA approval for the treatment of COVID-19 in July 2022 to become the first China-made oral COVID-19 drug.</li>
<li>Azvudine was conditionally approved by the NMPA for the treatment of HIV infection in July 2021. However, the drug is yet to be commercialized.</li>
<li>Genuine Biotech plans to use the IPO proceeds for the commercialization of Azvudine. The company’s current cash balance can maintain its financial viability for approximately 20 months.</li>
</ul>



Genuine Biotech (GBL HK) has filed for HK listing. Its Azvudine received NMPA approval for the treatment of COVID-19 in July 2022 to become the first China-made oral COVID-19 drug.
Azvudine was conditionally approved by the NMPA for the treatment of HIV infection in July 2021. However, the drug is yet to be commercialized.
Genuine Biotech plans to use the IPO proceeds for the commercialization of Azvudine. The company’s current cash balance can maintain its financial viability for approximately 20 months.


Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction

<ul>
<li>NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.</li>
<li>We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.</li>
<li>All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. </li>
</ul>


NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.
We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.
All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. 


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

<ul>
<li>“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.</li>
<li>The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.</li>
<li>We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.</li>
</ul>


“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.
The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.
We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

<ul>
<li>The Development and Reform Commission of Shenzhen Municipality issued a document about the subsidy for VBP, which is a positive policy and is good for innovation.</li>
<li>The approval of Genuine Biotech’s Azvudine could greatly increase the unpredictability of the approval of domestic innovative drugs, thus greatly increasing the unpredictable risk of domestic innovative drug enterprises.</li>
<li>In terms of internationalization, we summarized what Chinese pharmaceutical companies could do at the current stage. But they are hard to become the mainstream in pharmaceuticals globally in short term.</li>
</ul>


The Development and Reform Commission of Shenzhen Municipality issued a document about the subsidy for VBP, which is a positive policy and is good for innovation.
The approval of Genuine Biotech’s Azvudine could greatly increase the unpredictability of the approval of domestic innovative drugs, thus greatly increasing the unpredictable risk of domestic innovative drug enterprises.
In terms of internationalization, we summarized what Chinese pharmaceutical companies could do at the current stage. But they are hard to become the mainstream in pharmaceuticals globally in short term.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.29)-Subsidy for VBP, Unpredictable NMPA, Ways for Internationalization

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.25) - CXO Trading Strategy, Plunge in Medical Beauty, Belief in Biotech

If investor still want to trade CXO,here are two suggestions; The plunge in medical beauty sector last week was due to industry-wide...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction

Genuine Biotech has filed for Hong Kong listing to raise funds to commercialize its newly approved drug. The company’s Azvudine is the first China...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

We recommend cautiously optimistic about new innovative device policy. It's important to clarify what constitutes "commercialization success". All...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

New policy of online drug sales is released,including certain restrictions.The rise of China biotech is based on historical opportunity of alpha...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.29)-Subsidy for VBP, Unpredictable NMPA, Ways for Internationalization

The policy about subsidy for VBP is a positive sign for innovation. NMPA is unpredictable, increasing the uncertainty of drug approval. Here's what...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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