Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.</li>
<li>Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.</li>
<li>HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.
Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.
HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.


Macro Vol Monthly - March:  Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?</li>
<li>The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk


Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> experienced a 6.8% increase over five consecutive positive weeks. This Insight builds on the work of quantitative analysis identifying resistance and support levels.</li>
<li>This Insight presents four different options strategies to combine quantitative insights with volatility and option analysis. </li>
<li>Option strategies cater for both bullish, bearish, or neutral views, and can be tailored to fit a given risk budget.</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) experienced a 6.8% increase over five consecutive positive weeks. This Insight builds on the work of quantitative analysis identifying resistance and support levels.
This Insight presents four different options strategies to combine quantitative insights with volatility and option analysis. 
Option strategies cater for both bullish, bearish, or neutral views, and can be tailored to fit a given risk budget.


EQD | China Mobile (941 HK) - Four Option Strategies for the Extended Bull Run.

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> appears to be rising while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> has stalled. The two index often move in tandem.</li>
<li>We read the two markets with our models and we found that actually BOTH markets are equally overbought (according to price models, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> also according to time model).</li>
<li>So, there is no divergence, no arbitrage opportunity, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> will not catch up with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, both indices are going to pullback very soon.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) appears to be rising while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) has stalled. The two index often move in tandem.
We read the two markets with our models and we found that actually BOTH markets are equally overbought (according to price models, the HSI also according to time model).
So, there is no divergence, no arbitrage opportunity, the CSI 300 Index will not catch up with the HSI, both indices are going to pullback very soon.


HSI Rising, CSI 300 Stalled: No Divergence, No Arbitrage, Both Show a SELL Signal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.


China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

EQD | China Mobile (941 HK) - Four Option Strategies for the Extended Bull Run.

China Mobile (941 HK) saw a 6.8% rise in five weeks. This insights details four options strategies based on resistance/support levels.

Gaudenz Schneider

HSI Rising, CSI 300 Stalled: No Divergence, No Arbitrage, Both Show a SELL Signal

The HSI Index is rising, the CSI 300 Index has stalled, but both are equally very overbought. We see no arbitrage opportunity, a pullback is...

Nico Rosti

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

​March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

EQD | China Mobile (941 HK) - Four Option Strategies for the Extended Bull Run.

​China Mobile (941 HK) saw a 6.8% rise in five weeks. This insights details four options strategies based on resistance/support levels.

Gaudenz Schneider

HSI Rising, CSI 300 Stalled: No Divergence, No Arbitrage, Both Show a SELL Signal

​The HSI Index is rising, the CSI 300 Index has stalled, but both are equally very overbought. We see no arbitrage opportunity, a pullback is...

Nico Rosti

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

China Mobile (941 HK) saw a 6.8% rise in five weeks. This insights details four options strategies based on resistance/support levels.

The HSI Index is rising, the CSI 300 Index has stalled, but both are equally very overbought. We see no arbitrage opportunity, a pullback is...