European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.</li>
<li>Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.
Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.
Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).


<ul>
<li>Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.</li>
<li>Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.</li>
<li>The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.


Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul>
<li>Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.</li>
<li>Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.</li>
<li>Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.
Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.
Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.


Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The June 2025 index review results for F100 and F250 indices were announced yesterday after LSE market close.</li>
<li>There will be no changes for F100. There will be 4 ADDs and 4 DELs for F250.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/urban-logistics-reit-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35663:1" rel="noopener">Urban Logistics REIT (SHED LN)</a> is set to be deleted from the F250 index in June 2025 due to the completion of an M&amp;A event.</li>
</ul>


The June 2025 index review results for F100 and F250 indices were announced yesterday after LSE market close.
There will be no changes for F100. There will be 4 ADDs and 4 DELs for F250.
Separately, Urban Logistics REIT (SHED LN) is set to be deleted from the F250 index in June 2025 due to the completion of an M&amp;A event.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index prior to the June 2025 review and then one more shortly after the rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be four regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index prior to the June 2025 review and then one more shortly after the rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be four regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: LONGs up +6% Vs Index; Multiple Intra-Review Changes Soon

United Kingdom

Renewi plc provides waste management services. The Company collects and recycles energy and fuel, paper, metal, plastic, glass, woodchips and compost, and other products. Renewi serves customers in Europe and North America.

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Renewi (RWI LN)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

All eight confirmed index changes have decent index flow impacts expected. Urban Logistics deletion could trigger one more addition to the F250...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: LONGs up +6% Vs Index; Multiple Intra-Review Changes Soon

Our final expectations for the F100/250 Jun25 review have been added in a discussion point below. The changes will be confirmed after LSE market...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

​Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

​Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.

Special Situation Investments

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25 Results: All 6 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct + Couple of Surprises

All eight confirmed index changes have decent index flow impacts expected. Urban Logistics deletion could trigger one more addition to the F250...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: LONGs up +6% Vs Index; Multiple Intra-Review Changes Soon

Our final expectations for the F100/250 Jun25 review have been added in a discussion point below. The changes will be confirmed after LSE market...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...