Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,268/1,284 and the support at 1,251/1,238.</li><li>The US Department of Labor released the JOLTS Job Openings survey, showing that job openings—a key measure of labor market demand—fell by 170k to 7.18mn positions in July, below analysts’ forecast of 7.38mn and down from 7.437mn in June.</li><li>The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) projects Thailand’s GDP growth at 1.8–2.2% in 2025, with exports expected to grow 2–3% and inflation at 0.5–1.0%.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,268/1,284 and the support at 1,251/1,238.The US Department of Labor released the JOLTS Job Openings survey, showing that job openings—a key measure of labor market demand—fell by 170k to 7.18mn positions in July, below analysts’ forecast of 7.38mn and down from 7.437mn in June.The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) projects Thailand’s GDP growth at 1.8–2.2% in 2025, with exports expected to grow 2–3% and inflation at 0.5–1.0%.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 4, 2025

<ul><li>After a prolonged slump characterized by growth saturation and a drowsy economy, Thailand’s consumption-driven stocks should enter a phase of recovery.</li><li>We expect a favorable accumulation window through October, leading into the earnings preview period for 3Q25E results, which should mark the seasonal bottom.</li><li>Valuations remain broadly attractive following a significant de-rating since 2023. </li></ul>

After a prolonged slump characterized by growth saturation and a drowsy economy, Thailand’s consumption-driven stocks should enter a phase of recovery.We expect a favorable accumulation window through October, leading into the earnings preview period for 3Q25E results, which should mark the seasonal bottom.Valuations remain broadly attractive following a significant de-rating since 2023. 

Special Report: Turning the Corner on the Consumption Slowdown - July 18, 2025

<ul><li>SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.</li><li>The property market continues to be sluggish, and the upcoming minimum wage hike adds further pressure.</li><li>As a result, we have revised down our 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the home improvement retail segment by an average of 26% per year, resulting in a flat earnings outlook for the sector over the next three years. </li></ul>

SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.The property market continues to be sluggish, and the upcoming minimum wage hike adds further pressure.As a result, we have revised down our 2025-27E earnings forecasts for the home improvement retail segment by an average of 26% per year, resulting in a flat earnings outlook for the sector over the next three years. 

Commerce (Retail Business) - JULY 1, 2025

<ul><li>Typically, the first quarter is the high season for DOHOME and GLOBAL.</li><li>However, due to mixed SSSG momentum in 1Q25YTD, fewer days in February, and government economic stimulus measures with a shorter duration and lower budget compared to last year (which also impacts HMPRO), the 1Q25E outlook suggests that the construction and home improvement retail sector’s profit will rebound QoQ but remain flat YoY.</li><li>We assign a Neutral investment weighting to the sector and maintain DOHOME (Buy; FV: Bt9.35) as our top pick, supported by positive SSSG in 1Q25TD QoQ and a stronger 3-year earnings CAGR of 27%, compared to 10% for GLOBAL and 5% for HMPRO.</li></ul>

Typically, the first quarter is the high season for DOHOME and GLOBAL.However, due to mixed SSSG momentum in 1Q25YTD, fewer days in February, and government economic stimulus measures with a shorter duration and lower budget compared to last year (which also impacts HMPRO), the 1Q25E outlook suggests that the construction and home improvement retail sector’s profit will rebound QoQ but remain flat YoY.We assign a Neutral investment weighting to the sector and maintain DOHOME (Buy; FV: Bt9.35) as our top pick, supported by positive SSSG in 1Q25TD QoQ and a stronger 3-year earnings CAGR of 27%, compared to 10% for GLOBAL and 5% for HMPRO.

Commerce _Home Improvement - MARCH 11, 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%.</li><li>This is anticipated to have a positive impact on the five commerce sector stocks under our coverage.</li><li>We assign a Neutral investment weight, as our analysis indicates that this measure could positively impact profits by approximately 0.6% of the combined earnings estimates for the five companies in 2025E. </li></ul>

The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%.This is anticipated to have a positive impact on the five commerce sector stocks under our coverage.We assign a Neutral investment weight, as our analysis indicates that this measure could positively impact profits by approximately 0.6% of the combined earnings estimates for the five companies in 2025E. 

Commerce: Easy E-Receipt 2.0 to Pose Most Upside to CPALL

Thailand

Siam Global House PCL is a retailer of home related products for construction, repair, decoration, and renovation. The Company sells construction materials, hand tools, furniture, and garden tools.

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Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 4, 2025

The US Department of Labor released the JOLTS Job Openings survey, showing that job openings—a key measure of labor market demand—fell by 170k to...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Turning the Corner on the Consumption Slowdown - July 18, 2025

After a prolonged slump characterized by growth saturation and a drowsy economy, Thailand’s consumption-driven stocks should enter a phase of...

Krungthai XSpring

Commerce (Retail Business) - JULY 1, 2025

SSSG momentum remains weak, while domestic political uncertainty poses risks of delays in government investment disbursements.

Krungthai XSpring

Commerce _Home Improvement - MARCH 11, 2025

We assign a Neutral investment weighting to the sector and maintain DOHOME (Buy; FV: Bt9.35) as our top pick, supported by positive SSSG in 1Q25TD QoQ

Krungthai XSpring

Commerce: Easy E-Receipt 2.0 to Pose Most Upside to CPALL

The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and...

Krungthai XSpring

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