Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Asset World Corporation / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.</li>
</ul>


Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.


SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

Event-Driven

<p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.</p><p>The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.</p><p>The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.</p><p>Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.</p>

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

<p>The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.</p><p>This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a> - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.</p><p>Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.</p>

The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> is the largest home improvement retailer in Malaysia, with a revenue market share of 29.1% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the fixed IPO price of RM1.60 per share, Mr DIY will raise proceeds of $362 million (primary/secondary split of 20%/80%). Fourteen cornerstone investors will subscribe for 234.7 million of the offer shares. The cornerstone investors include Aberdeen Standard Investments, AIA, BlackRock, Fidelity and JP Morgan Asset Management. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-make-your-own" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous note</a>, we highlighted that with a commendable performance during the COVID-19 outbreak, we continue to believe that Mr DIY’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Mr DIY tempting at the proposed price. </p></div></div></div>

MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) is the largest home improvement retailer in Malaysia, with a revenue market share of 29.1% in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the fixed IPO price of RM1.60 per share, Mr DIY will raise proceeds of $362 million (primary/secondary split of 20%/80%). Fourteen cornerstone investors will subscribe for 234.7 million of the offer shares. The cornerstone investors include Aberdeen Standard Investments, AIA, BlackRock, Fidelity and JP Morgan Asset Management. In our previous note, we highlighted that with a commendable performance during the COVID-19 outbreak, we continue to believe that Mr DIY’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Mr DIY tempting at the proposed price. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.</p>

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Thailand

Siam Global House PCL is a retailer of home related products for construction, repair, decoration, and renovation. The Company sells construction materials, hand tools, furniture, and garden tools.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)

SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

There are 3 changes to the SET50 index at the December rebalance. AWC, BANPU and TIDLOR will replace BJC, DELTA and STA. AWC is a 'surprise' and...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

The SET has commenced a market consultation on the proposed changes to make its indices free float market cap weighted. We look at the impact on...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

There is a strong possibility that the SET revises the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and changes...

Brian Freitas

Mr D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights

Converge ICT Solutions Inc (ITC PM) is the only major pure-play fixed broadband provider, with an exclusive focus on serving the Philippine fixed...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)