Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/782" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1">General Electric Co (GE US)</a> (“GE” or the “Company”) participated in two investor conferences on February 21, 2018. The message from Jamie Miller, the CFO of the company, was clear as can be. As recently as on November 13, 2017, on its investor day, GE issued an EPS guidance range of $1.00-$1.07 for 2018. Today the CFO updated that guidance by saying that there had been an “explicit shift” in management’s view of GE Capital’s (“capital”) prospects and hence the needle had moved from “about break even at capital” to perhaps lower than that. Therefore, GE is likely to deliver the low-end of its guidance and not the high-end.In our view, in its current transition, GE provides neither beta nor alpha to portfolios, only heartburn. It will both underperform the market, and be an absolute drag on portfolios as well. We maintain our hypothesis of a single digit stock price for GE sometimes in the second half of 2018.

General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or the “Company”) participated in two investor conferences on February 21, 2018. The message from Jamie Miller, the CFO of the company, was clear as can be. As recently as on November 13, 2017, on its investor day, GE issued an EPS guidance range of $1.00-$1.07 for 2018. Today the CFO updated that guidance by saying that there had been an “explicit shift” in management’s view of GE Capital’s (“capital”) prospects and hence the needle had moved from “about break even at capital” to perhaps lower than that. Therefore, GE is likely to deliver the low-end of its guidance and not the high-end.In our view, in its current transition, GE provides neither beta nor alpha to portfolios, only heartburn. It will both underperform the market, and be an absolute drag on portfolios as well. We maintain our hypothesis of a single digit stock price for GE sometimes in the second half of 2018.

General Electric - Marching to a Single Digit Stock Price - Part 3

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/782" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1">General Electric Co (GE US)</a> (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a total return of -42.1%, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index (“S&amp;P”) at 21.8%. Moreover, the company’s streak of dividend growth after the financial crises was interrupted with the dividend for 2018 slashed in half to an annualised rate of $0.48 per share, pushing it back down to 1999 levels. The management of GE is struggling with a conglomerate operating in multiple business segments, that possess neither technology nor market synergy. We expect continued under-performance in 2018 as well.We do not expect EBITDA to grow from current levels given multiple headwinds in approximately 50% of GE’s revenue base. We expect any gains in costs to be competed away in an over-supplied market for industrial infrastructure. Higher rates will compress EV/EBITDA multiples going forward.  Current valuation of GE does not reflect that eventuality yet. Compressed multiples could easily result in a single digit stock price for GE in the second half of 2018. Currently GE is priced for perfection, although it has proven to be a mere mortal since the financial crises. Simplistic bench-marking to industry peers appears to suggest a fully valued stock price, while ignoring myriad GE specific challenges such as accounting, governance, corporate control over reporting &amp; auditing, and declining product end-market. If, what's past is prologue then the company's accounting has set it up for more downside going forward. Stay tuned.

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a total return of -42.1%, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index (“S&amp;P”) at 21.8%. Moreover, the company’s streak of dividend growth after the financial crises was interrupted with the dividend for 2018 slashed in half to an annualised rate of $0.48 per share, pushing it back down to 1999 levels. The management of GE is struggling with a conglomerate operating in multiple business segments, that possess neither technology nor market synergy. We expect continued under-performance in 2018 as well.We do not expect EBITDA to grow from current levels given multiple headwinds in approximately 50% of GE’s revenue base. We expect any gains in costs to be competed away in an over-supplied market for industrial infrastructure. Higher rates will compress EV/EBITDA multiples going forward.  Current valuation of GE does not reflect that eventuality yet. Compressed multiples could easily result in a single digit stock price for GE in the second half of 2018. Currently GE is priced for perfection, although it has proven to be a mere mortal since the financial crises. Simplistic bench-marking to industry peers appears to suggest a fully valued stock price, while ignoring myriad GE specific challenges such as accounting, governance, corporate control over reporting &amp; auditing, and declining product end-market. If, what's past is prologue then the company's accounting has set it up for more downside going forward. Stay tuned.

General Electric (GE US )- 25% Downside and Perhaps a Single Digit Stock Price in Its Future?

Germany

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on areas of electrification, automation, and digitalization. Siemens also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical diagnosis.

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Siemens (SIE GR)

General Electric - Marching to a Single Digit Stock Price - Part 3

General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or the “Company”) participated in two investor conferences on February 21, 2018. The message from Jamie Miller,...

ANTYA Investments

General Electric (GE US )- 25% Downside and Perhaps a Single Digit Stock Price in Its Future?

Dismal Stock Performance in 2017 and Since 2012General Electric Co (GE US) (“GE” or “company”) had a terrible 2017, with the stock providing a...

ANTYA Investments

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