Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28</li>
<li>Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.</li>
<li>Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a "recovery" year.</li>
</ul>


Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a "recovery" year.


Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Relative Value Trade in Micron Has Worked Since Our Last Piece; Results Blow Away Expectations</li>
<li>Memory Pricing Improvement Continues, Management Expects Pricing Increases Through Calendar Year 2024 and 2025</li>
<li>We Remain Structurally Long Memory; Now See Relative Value in SK Hynix</li>
</ul>


Relative Value Trade in Micron Has Worked Since Our Last Piece; Results Blow Away Expectations
Memory Pricing Improvement Continues, Management Expects Pricing Increases Through Calendar Year 2024 and 2025
We Remain Structurally Long Memory; Now See Relative Value in SK Hynix


Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/meituan' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Meituan</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lippo-malls-indonesia-retail-trust' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sk-hynix-inc' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>SK Hynix</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:MeituanLippo Malls Indonesia Retail TrustSK HynixChina Jinmao HoldingsGeely Autoand more...

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The KRX has preliminarily approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a>'s listing transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> has announced that its stock will start trading on the KOSPI Market from the open on 2 January.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36608:1" rel="noopener">Temc (425040 KS)</a> to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 December.</li>
</ul>


The KRX has preliminarily approved Posco DX (022100 KS)'s listing transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.

Posco DX (022100 KS) has announced that its stock will start trading on the KOSPI Market from the open on 2 January.
We expect Temc (425040 KS) to replace Posco DX (022100 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the close on 28 December.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%</li>
<li>Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish</li>
<li>We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center</li>
</ul>


Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%
Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish
We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center


2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

Q1FY24 revenue $4.7 billion, +18% QoQ, +16% YoY. Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, + 13% QoQ. Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still...

William Keating

Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

We expect memory volume growth and rising memory chip prices to continue through both calendar years 2024 & 2025. Our Micron relative trade has...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Weekly Wrap - 21 Dec 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer

Posco DX (022100 KS) is up 14% today. There could be another week of trading on the KOSDAQ market before the listing transfer to the KOSPI market....

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

2024 semiconductor revenue growth will be muted despite forecasts predicting strong growth. This post explains why the year will not see another...

Jim Handy

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