Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.</li>
<li>Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.
Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>DGB Financial Group's market cap makes it virtually impossible to get deleted even with Kakao Pay's GICS change in this June rebalancing.</li>
<li>It's unclear whether this has damaged the price impact of K200 inclusion. Nevertheless, the intensity of the pre-rebalancing flow wasn't aggressive, possibly due to the combination of factors, including this.</li>
<li>This suggests the possibility of an intense price impact resulting from a more concentrated flow right before the effective date, so we should prepare a setup that considers this.</li>
</ul>


DGB Financial Group's market cap makes it virtually impossible to get deleted even with Kakao Pay's GICS change in this June rebalancing.
It's unclear whether this has damaged the price impact of K200 inclusion. Nevertheless, the intensity of the pre-rebalancing flow wasn't aggressive, possibly due to the combination of factors, including this.
This suggests the possibility of an intense price impact resulting from a more concentrated flow right before the effective date, so we should prepare a setup that considers this.


Clarifying Market's Inaccurate Constituent Change Forecast in K200 Rebalancing with GICS Revision

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down </li>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers</li>
<li>Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter</li>
</ul>


On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down 
Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers
Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter


Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

<ul>
<li>Server unit shipments look set to decline meaningfully from their bumper year in 2022</li>
<li>Micron expects industry profitability to remain challenged for all of 2023</li>
<li>In contrast to their competitors, Samsung has announced no plans to cut wafer output, headcount or equipment CapEx spending.</li>
</ul>


Server unit shipments look set to decline meaningfully from their bumper year in 2022
Micron expects industry profitability to remain challenged for all of 2023
In contrast to their competitors, Samsung has announced no plans to cut wafer output, headcount or equipment CapEx spending.


Samsung. The Spending Spree Goes On. And On. But Why?

<ul>
<li>H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.</li>
<li>We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.</li>
<li>Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. </li>
</ul>


H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 


Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

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Wium Malan, CFA

Clarifying Market's Inaccurate Constituent Change Forecast in K200 Rebalancing with GICS Revision

This post clarifies the market's inaccurate constituent change forecast on the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June with the GICS revision,...

Sanghyun Park

Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Samsung. The Spending Spree Goes On. And On. But Why?

In sharp contrast to their competitors, Samsung has announced no plans to cut wafer output, headcount or equipment CapEx spending. But why?

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

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