Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22253:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse Group's (CSGN VX)</a> press release of this morning is no reason to buy its Contingent Capital (CoCos). Credit Suisse is skating on thin ice from a capital perspective. Another loss of less than CHF2bn (US$2.1bn) could result in the suspension of coupons on CS’ Contingent Capital securities. This is one-half the charges related to the Archegos Capital Management affair. This leaves little room for maneuver.A warm wind blowing from a hot US economy could crack the ice. Low interest rates, which are pushing investors to take more risk, are generating asset bubbles. CS, like other banks, intermediates in this asset-inflated environment. Unlike other banks, something as simple as an unexpected spike in interest rates could be the catalyst which leads to a fissure in the firm’s capital layer. Another family or hedge fund disaster like Archegos and CS’ CoCo coupons could be at risk.Bank capital analysis is arcane and further complicated by selective disclosure. CoCo investors may not be aware of how slim CS’ capital buffer truly is. And yet, this is at the core of whether the security is under- or over- priced. We deconstruct the press release to determine this level within.As we noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49970/Credit%20Suisse:%20Where%20There%E2%80%99s%20Smoke,%20There%E2%80%99s%20a%20Capital%20Raise.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/yxeJd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise</a>, we were fortunate to be ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now trading around $95.We continue to believe that Credit Suisse needs to enhance its capital base. Assuming no additional cracks in the ice – a large assumption - it may take CS two quarters to achieve current UBS-type capital buffer levels. However, CS has a materially higher risk tolerance and is clearly impaired from a risk management perspective. At least, one full year of earnings retention may be needed to address these deficiencies. Furthermore, there are weak spots yet to traverse including legacy RMBS costs, CS Supply Chain Fund shortfalls and a debt scandal in Mozambique to say nothing of increased regulatory capital charges following recent events. Together, these may see to it that share buybacks are suspended for some time to come. This would be beneficial for CS’ debt capital over time. In the interim CS’ CoCos may recover somewhat; however, we continue to believe that these securities will lag the market until the layer of capital is strengthened. As such, we remain Underweight.

Executive Summary: Credit Suisse Group's (CSGN VX) press release of this morning is no reason to buy its Contingent Capital (CoCos). Credit Suisse is skating on thin ice from a capital perspective. Another loss of less than CHF2bn (US$2.1bn) could result in the suspension of coupons on CS’ Contingent Capital securities. This is one-half the charges related to the Archegos Capital Management affair. This leaves little room for maneuver.A warm wind blowing from a hot US economy could crack the ice. Low interest rates, which are pushing investors to take more risk, are generating asset bubbles. CS, like other banks, intermediates in this asset-inflated environment. Unlike other banks, something as simple as an unexpected spike in interest rates could be the catalyst which leads to a fissure in the firm’s capital layer. Another family or hedge fund disaster like Archegos and CS’ CoCo coupons could be at risk.Bank capital analysis is arcane and further complicated by selective disclosure. CoCo investors may not be aware of how slim CS’ capital buffer truly is. And yet, this is at the core of whether the security is under- or over- priced. We deconstruct the press release to determine this level within.As we noted in Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise, we were fortunate to be ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now trading around $95.We continue to believe that Credit Suisse needs to enhance its capital base. Assuming no additional cracks in the ice – a large assumption - it may take CS two quarters to achieve current UBS-type capital buffer levels. However, CS has a materially higher risk tolerance and is clearly impaired from a risk management perspective. At least, one full year of earnings retention may be needed to address these deficiencies. Furthermore, there are weak spots yet to traverse including legacy RMBS costs, CS Supply Chain Fund shortfalls and a debt scandal in Mozambique to say nothing of increased regulatory capital charges following recent events. Together, these may see to it that share buybacks are suspended for some time to come. This would be beneficial for CS’ debt capital over time. In the interim CS’ CoCos may recover somewhat; however, we continue to believe that these securities will lag the market until the layer of capital is strengthened. As such, we remain Underweight.

Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital

Executive Summary: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22253:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse Group (CSGN VX)</a> requires between CHF4 to 8bn in additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) to remain competitive and bring its capital buffer in-line with peers. We noted several week ago that the firm’s capital buffer was too thin to absorb large losses while its Contingent Capital (CoCo) securities continued to trade rich relative to peers. The thin, and likely declining, buffer may now affect its ability to compete. In our view, the issue is quickly moving from damage control towards a capital raise.We derive our capital estimates by starting with the amount required to bring the CET1 buffer up to peer levels. To this we add various exceptional charges which are increasing every other week. Details within.We were ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now below $95. Our recommendation was based on a fundamental assessment of CS’ business model, risk tolerance and capitalization. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49775/Credit%20Suisse%20%E2%80%93%20Perfection%20Priced%20into%20Long-Dated%20AT1.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/7w5Cm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1</a> for more details. These negative factors were magnified by the Greensill episode. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49775/Credit%20Suisse:%20Greensill%20Sows%20Reputation%20Risks,%20Underweight%20CS%20Bonds.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/tq31o" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49775/Credit%20Suisse:%20Greensill's%20Capital%20Implications%20Outweigh%20Asset%20Management%20Corrective%20Action.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/WWiXU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill's Capital Implications Outweigh Asset Management Corrective Action</a>. The Archegos affair adds fuel to this fire.It is too early to consider this a buying opportunity. While we believe in our recapitalization call, we do not anticipate an immediate move towards improving the firms’ competitive position. The flames are rising and more fuel could be added before the capital blanket is applied. As such, we believe CS’ bonds may continue to lag that of its peers.However, the Swiss regulator may be unwilling to wait for the smoke to dampen and the arrival of a new Board Chairman should create the opportunity to clear the air at Credit Suisse. Obviously in addition to raising equity, CS would need to take serious action concerning its risk management and tolerance. Risk tolerance needs to be reduced until risk management is improved as these are the embers which stated this fire. This should be beneficial to AT1 investors over the long-run.

Executive Summary: The Credit Suisse Group (CSGN VX) requires between CHF4 to 8bn in additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) to remain competitive and bring its capital buffer in-line with peers. We noted several week ago that the firm’s capital buffer was too thin to absorb large losses while its Contingent Capital (CoCo) securities continued to trade rich relative to peers. The thin, and likely declining, buffer may now affect its ability to compete. In our view, the issue is quickly moving from damage control towards a capital raise.We derive our capital estimates by starting with the amount required to bring the CET1 buffer up to peer levels. To this we add various exceptional charges which are increasing every other week. Details within.We were ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now below $95. Our recommendation was based on a fundamental assessment of CS’ business model, risk tolerance and capitalization. Please see: Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1 for more details. These negative factors were magnified by the Greensill episode. Please see: Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds and Credit Suisse: Greensill's Capital Implications Outweigh Asset Management Corrective Action. The Archegos affair adds fuel to this fire.It is too early to consider this a buying opportunity. While we believe in our recapitalization call, we do not anticipate an immediate move towards improving the firms’ competitive position. The flames are rising and more fuel could be added before the capital blanket is applied. As such, we believe CS’ bonds may continue to lag that of its peers.However, the Swiss regulator may be unwilling to wait for the smoke to dampen and the arrival of a new Board Chairman should create the opportunity to clear the air at Credit Suisse. Obviously in addition to raising equity, CS would need to take serious action concerning its risk management and tolerance. Risk tolerance needs to be reduced until risk management is improved as these are the embers which stated this fire. This should be beneficial to AT1 investors over the long-run. 

Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise

As the fallout from the Greensill affair continues, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)</a> acknowledged 3 items regarding this situation:First, the Pillar 2 capital buffer requirement may be impacted by the Greensill affair. This may have long lasting negative implications for the valuation of CS contingent capital Tier 1 bonds.Second, certain notes underlying the Supply Chain Finance (SCF) funds will not be repaid when they fall due. The nonpayment creates considerable uncertainty regarding the valuation of a significant part of the remaining US$6.9bn. of assets in the SCF funds.Third, certain investors have already threatened litigation and, CS also stated that it “might also suffer reputational harm associated with these matters that might cause client departures or loss of assets under management.” This is what we warned when the Greensill news broke two weeks ago. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-suisse-greensill-sows-reputation-risks-underweight-cs-bonds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48839" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds</a> for more details. In the intervening time-period, CS equity and credit have materially underperformed their respective indexes.At this point, investors’ main concern should be the amount or level of additional Pillar 2 capital which the firm may need to retain. The is not currently factored into CS’ debt or equity valuations.To its credit, the bank is taking prompt corrective action in restructuring the leadership, transparency, and compensation of the Asset Management division. However, we remain skeptical with whether the worst is past in this affair. Alternative assets require greater oversight as they are harder to manage and value. Combining risk management and compliance functions across CS stills seems like a mistake when it comes to asset management. However, the segmental separation of the Asset Management division may be a first step to unloading the relatively undersized entity. Distancing the unit from the Wealth Management operations may limit client departures.We continue to believe that the pricing of Credit Suisse bonds does not fully reflect the risks, complexity, and low capitalization of the firms’ underlying business model; nor does it capture potential franchise impairment from increasing reputation risk. The recent suspension of redemptions from certain CS funds is at best an embarrassment and at worst a signal that controls remain in need of considerable attention. This is unfortunate, as CS is highly geared to the business cycle and could outperform peers, if it can get its house in order. However, CS’s long-dated Additional Tier 1 bonds already trade tight relative to the challenges facing the firm. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-suisse-perfection-priced-into-long-dated-at1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48461" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1</a> for more details.   We suspect that credit may continue to follow equity and underperform over the near term. Longer-term, Pillar 2 considerations suggest that an even lower capital buffer as a cushion for AT1 investors, unless hidden capital is realized, or shareholders receive less in returns. Taken together, we remain comfortable with our recommendation that investors underweight Credit Suisse.

As the fallout from the Greensill affair continues, Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW) acknowledged 3 items regarding this situation:First, the Pillar 2 capital buffer requirement may be impacted by the Greensill affair. This may have long lasting negative implications for the valuation of CS contingent capital Tier 1 bonds.Second, certain notes underlying the Supply Chain Finance (SCF) funds will not be repaid when they fall due. The nonpayment creates considerable uncertainty regarding the valuation of a significant part of the remaining US$6.9bn. of assets in the SCF funds.Third, certain investors have already threatened litigation and, CS also stated that it “might also suffer reputational harm associated with these matters that might cause client departures or loss of assets under management.” This is what we warned when the Greensill news broke two weeks ago. Please see Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds for more details. In the intervening time-period, CS equity and credit have materially underperformed their respective indexes.At this point, investors’ main concern should be the amount or level of additional Pillar 2 capital which the firm may need to retain. The is not currently factored into CS’ debt or equity valuations.To its credit, the bank is taking prompt corrective action in restructuring the leadership, transparency, and compensation of the Asset Management division. However, we remain skeptical with whether the worst is past in this affair. Alternative assets require greater oversight as they are harder to manage and value. Combining risk management and compliance functions across CS stills seems like a mistake when it comes to asset management. However, the segmental separation of the Asset Management division may be a first step to unloading the relatively undersized entity. Distancing the unit from the Wealth Management operations may limit client departures.We continue to believe that the pricing of Credit Suisse bonds does not fully reflect the risks, complexity, and low capitalization of the firms’ underlying business model; nor does it capture potential franchise impairment from increasing reputation risk. The recent suspension of redemptions from certain CS funds is at best an embarrassment and at worst a signal that controls remain in need of considerable attention. This is unfortunate, as CS is highly geared to the business cycle and could outperform peers, if it can get its house in order. However, CS’s long-dated Additional Tier 1 bonds already trade tight relative to the challenges facing the firm. Please see: Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1 for more details.   We suspect that credit may continue to follow equity and underperform over the near term. Longer-term, Pillar 2 considerations suggest that an even lower capital buffer as a cushion for AT1 investors, unless hidden capital is realized, or shareholders receive less in returns. Taken together, we remain comfortable with our recommendation that investors underweight Credit Suisse. 

Credit Suisse: Greensill's Capital Implications Outweigh Asset Management Corrective Action

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-suisse-greensill-sows-reputation-risks-underweight-cs-bonds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48839" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds</a> for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48133" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position</a> for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Given its low capital buffer and plans to lower it further, along with high market risk tolerance and leverage finance exposure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22253:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse's (CSGN VX)</a> Additional Tier 1 (AT1) trades too tight relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubs-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22590:1" rel="noopener">UBS (UBSG VX)</a> and most other large banks globally. We see better value elsewhere at this point in the credit cycle.Many analysts compare CS and UBS and conclude that they are largely the same, with UBS having deleveraged its investment banking franchise years earlier. We disagree. While both may suffer outflows in assets under management during a prolonged equity market correction, UBS has a far less market-sensitive franchise during intermittent bouts of volatility, as was clearly shown over the past year. In addition to having a higher trading risk tolerance profile, CS appears to have a higher sensitivity to non-investment grade leverage finance and oil &amp; gas exposures.  These are more sensitive to the business cycle. As of now, with global growth set to accelerate post-vaccination, this is a benefit. However, this is also already priced into CS’ securities.  In fact, the longer-dated AT1 bonds are priced to perfection, in our view.In addition, CS has a substantially lower Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) buffer than UBS and many other European banks.  Furthermore, as CS targets an even lower capital ratio, this buffer is at risk of falling further over the near term. While lofty aspirations to operate at a higher leverage level may be aimed at equity holders, we think it best to take management’s word at face value. Lower capital ratios are not AT1 capital supportive. Unless the firm simultaneously de-risks, sensitivity to non-IG leverage finance and non-IG oil &amp; gas exposures may increase.Furthermore, while we were impressed by Mr. Hoarta-Osório’s leadership at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-banking-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21009:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Bank (LLOY LN)</a> in the UK, despite several blemishes, we are surprised that the ex-CEO of a UK-centric mortgage bank would be chosen as Chairman of the Board at a global investment bank with wealth management growth aspirations in Asia. We are not convinced this is the best choice and we question if the execution risk from an eventual strategy pivot will be credit positive.We explore these themes and provide an overview of CS’s Q4 results within. We conclude that, taken together amongst its longer-dated peer-issued AT1 notes, we find better value in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/societe-generale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21478:1" rel="noopener">Société Générale's (GLE FP)</a> 2030 first call AT1 than in the recently issued Credit Suisse security. (Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/societe-generale-s-at1-better-fundamental-and-relative-value-than-bnp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48177" rel="noopener">Société Générale’s AT1: Better Fundamental and Relative Value than BNP</a> for more details on SocGen). We also see greater spread pick-up in Credit Suisse’s 2025 first call AT1 note than further out the curve.

Given its low capital buffer and plans to lower it further, along with high market risk tolerance and leverage finance exposure, Credit Suisse's (CSGN VX) Additional Tier 1 (AT1) trades too tight relative to UBS (UBSG VX) and most other large banks globally. We see better value elsewhere at this point in the credit cycle.Many analysts compare CS and UBS and conclude that they are largely the same, with UBS having deleveraged its investment banking franchise years earlier. We disagree. While both may suffer outflows in assets under management during a prolonged equity market correction, UBS has a far less market-sensitive franchise during intermittent bouts of volatility, as was clearly shown over the past year. In addition to having a higher trading risk tolerance profile, CS appears to have a higher sensitivity to non-investment grade leverage finance and oil &amp; gas exposures.  These are more sensitive to the business cycle. As of now, with global growth set to accelerate post-vaccination, this is a benefit. However, this is also already priced into CS’ securities.  In fact, the longer-dated AT1 bonds are priced to perfection, in our view.In addition, CS has a substantially lower Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) buffer than UBS and many other European banks.  Furthermore, as CS targets an even lower capital ratio, this buffer is at risk of falling further over the near term. While lofty aspirations to operate at a higher leverage level may be aimed at equity holders, we think it best to take management’s word at face value. Lower capital ratios are not AT1 capital supportive. Unless the firm simultaneously de-risks, sensitivity to non-IG leverage finance and non-IG oil &amp; gas exposures may increase.Furthermore, while we were impressed by Mr. Hoarta-Osório’s leadership at Lloyds Bank (LLOY LN) in the UK, despite several blemishes, we are surprised that the ex-CEO of a UK-centric mortgage bank would be chosen as Chairman of the Board at a global investment bank with wealth management growth aspirations in Asia. We are not convinced this is the best choice and we question if the execution risk from an eventual strategy pivot will be credit positive.We explore these themes and provide an overview of CS’s Q4 results within. We conclude that, taken together amongst its longer-dated peer-issued AT1 notes, we find better value in Société Générale's (GLE FP) 2030 first call AT1 than in the recently issued Credit Suisse security. (Please see: Société Générale’s AT1: Better Fundamental and Relative Value than BNP for more details on SocGen). We also see greater spread pick-up in Credit Suisse’s 2025 first call AT1 note than further out the curve.

Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1

France

Societe Generale SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private banking services.  The Bank offers consumer credit, vehicle lease financing, information technology equipment leasing, life and non-life insurance, custodian services, trade and project financing, currency exchange, treasury services, and financial and commodities futures brokerage services.

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Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP)

Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital

CS is skating on thin ice from a capital perspective while its risk management blade is dulled. Asset bubbles could crack the ice. A loss of less...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise

CS needs as much as CHF8bn in common equity to bring its capital buffer in-line with peers. The Archegos affair adds fuel to risk management and...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Credit Suisse: Greensill's Capital Implications Outweigh Asset Management Corrective Action

Additional Pillar 2 capital requirements are not currently factored into valuations. CS bonds do not reflect the risks, complexity, and low...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Performance attributes varied amongst bank credit classes. Short duration in IG financials combined with high credit spreads in HY and more...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Credit Suisse – Perfection Priced into Long-Dated AT1

Many analysts compare CS and UBS and conclude that they are largely the same. We disagree. Given its low capital buffer, higher leverage finance...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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