Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
<li>We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.
This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.
We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.


Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/software-service-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16487:1" rel="noopener">Software Service (3733 JP)</a> reported in-line FY22 results, with revenue growing 9% to ¥27.6B, driven by 7–8% y/y growth in hardware and software businesses, which contributed ~70% of revenue.</li>
<li>The company ended FY22 with an order backlog of ¥8.7B, up 22% y/y, driven by a 26% y/y growth in hardware orders. In November, the company secured order worth ¥2.6B.</li>
<li>For FY23, Software Service has guided for revenue of ¥30.4 billion (+10% y/y), operating profit of ¥5.4 billion (+12% y/y), and ordinary profit of ¥5.5 billion (12% y/y).</li>
</ul>



Software Service (3733 JP) reported in-line FY22 results, with revenue growing 9% to ¥27.6B, driven by 7–8% y/y growth in hardware and software businesses, which contributed ~70% of revenue.
The company ended FY22 with an order backlog of ¥8.7B, up 22% y/y, driven by a 26% y/y growth in hardware orders. In November, the company secured order worth ¥2.6B.
For FY23, Software Service has guided for revenue of ¥30.4 billion (+10% y/y), operating profit of ¥5.4 billion (+12% y/y), and ordinary profit of ¥5.5 billion (12% y/y).


Software Service (3733 JP): High Order Book Indicates Continued Stellar Performance

<ul>
<li>As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.</li>
<li>Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.</li>
<li>For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>


As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.
Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.
For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.


2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/software-service-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16487:1" rel="noopener">Software Service (3733 JP)</a> business remained resilient to the pandemic. The company reported double-digit growth in top and bottom line in FY21, ahead of its guidance.</li>
<li>Management guided for mid-single-digit growth in revenue for FY22. With the scalability of the business, profit is growing at a faster pace than revenue.</li>
<li>Electronic medical record has a penetration of 45% in Japan’s hospital and Software Service holds second largest market share of 20%.</li>
</ul>



Software Service (3733 JP) business remained resilient to the pandemic. The company reported double-digit growth in top and bottom line in FY21, ahead of its guidance.
Management guided for mid-single-digit growth in revenue for FY22. With the scalability of the business, profit is growing at a faster pace than revenue.
Electronic medical record has a penetration of 45% in Japan’s hospital and Software Service holds second largest market share of 20%.


Software Service (3733 JP): Resilient Business Model; Starting FY22 with a Strong Order Book

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/299/original/2020-09-06_14-17-48.png?1599369500" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157299"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>(It's a) </strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tea-life-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6199:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tea Life  (3172 JP)</strong></a> - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/301/original/2020-09-06_14-22-10.png?1599369747" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157301"></figure>
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<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p><strong>PERCENTAGES </strong>-<strong> 65%</strong> of quarterly results,<strong> 71%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 57%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>43%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>23 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.7 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9 ppt <strong><em>(ex tella)</em></strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losse</strong>s: 43%</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>-6.3 points</li>
</ul>
</div>


Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
(It's a) Tea Life  (3172 JP) - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. 



DAILY STATS



PERCENTAGES - 65% of quarterly results, 71% of annual forecasts/revisions and 57% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 43% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.



23 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9 ppt (ex tella)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 43%




17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions




Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.3 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

Japan

Software Service, Inc. develops and sells medical information software for hospital uses.  The products include electronic medical carte and order entry system.  The Company also provides training and maintenance services.

Software Service (3733 JP)

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee