Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We first wrote on Sony in mid-2017 noting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sony-has-got-its-mojo-back-super-slomo-acoustic-surfaces-and-the-world-s-fastest-internet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sony Has Got Its Mojo Back: Super Slomo, Acoustic Surfaces, and the World’s Fastest Internet</a> as we felt that Kazuo Hirai’s efforts to restore the company’s innovative culture were starting to bear fruit in a lot of niche areas. In the more than three years since, Sony has built on this momentum and is firing on all cylinders moving into the launch of the PS5 which we believe will be a key driver of the company’s long-term value. While this is hardly a non-consensus opinion, we feel the market may not quite appreciate the degree of potential market share gains hinted at by subtle developments and choices on design. We discuss these and the valuation case below.</p>

We first wrote on Sony in mid-2017 noting that Sony Has Got Its Mojo Back: Super Slomo, Acoustic Surfaces, and the World’s Fastest Internet as we felt that Kazuo Hirai’s efforts to restore the company’s innovative culture were starting to bear fruit in a lot of niche areas. In the more than three years since, Sony has built on this momentum and is firing on all cylinders moving into the launch of the PS5 which we believe will be a key driver of the company’s long-term value. While this is hardly a non-consensus opinion, we feel the market may not quite appreciate the degree of potential market share gains hinted at by subtle developments and choices on design. We discuss these and the valuation case below.

2021 High Conviction – Sony’s Year of the PS5

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quantitative Analysis

<p>There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  </p><p>Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-4931-jp-shinnihonseiyaku" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku</a> where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. </p><p>However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. </p><p>In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. </p><hr><div class="content-remarks"><p>This insight is an update to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-who-is-ready" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41091" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?</a>. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. </p></div>

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. This insight is an update to TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. 

TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

<p>We previously suggested that the PS5 could outsell the Xbox Series S/X by 3 or 4 to 1. We are increasingly confident of this and would be leaning towards the higher end of that range. While both consoles remain supply-constrained and sales figures are limited, various benchmarks of the consoles are starting to point to superior results for the PS5.</p>

We previously suggested that the PS5 could outsell the Xbox Series S/X by 3 or 4 to 1. We are increasingly confident of this and would be leaning towards the higher end of that range. While both consoles remain supply-constrained and sales figures are limited, various benchmarks of the consoles are starting to point to superior results for the PS5.

Sony – Stay Long for the Holiday Season PS5 Sales and Beyond

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 16<sup>th</sup> November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a>  to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business in China (known as YY Live). JOYY will retain its overseas business.</li>
<li>The deal includes YY mobile app, YY.com website and PC YY, among others, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately US$3.6bn in cash and the transaction is expected to occur in 1H2021 subject to certain conditions.</li>
<li>According to Baidu, YY Live stands to benefit from the company’s large traffic and thriving mobile ecosystem while Baidu will receive immediate operational experience and knowhow for large-scale video-based social media development, as well as a creator network that will further strengthen Baidu's massive content provider network.</li>
<li>Baidu has been a late entrant to the thriving short video app market in China which is currently dominated by Douyin and Kuaishou. Baidu has been attempting to reduce its dependence on core advertising revenues, however, these efforts are yet to make any meaningful impact on the company’s top line and margins.</li>
</ul>


On 16th November, Baidu (BIDU US)  announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with JOYY (YY US)  to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business in China (known as YY Live). JOYY will retain its overseas business.
The deal includes YY mobile app, YY.com website and PC YY, among others, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately US$3.6bn in cash and the transaction is expected to occur in 1H2021 subject to certain conditions.
According to Baidu, YY Live stands to benefit from the company’s large traffic and thriving mobile ecosystem while Baidu will receive immediate operational experience and knowhow for large-scale video-based social media development, as well as a creator network that will further strengthen Baidu's massive content provider network.
Baidu has been a late entrant to the thriving short video app market in China which is currently dominated by Douyin and Kuaishou. Baidu has been attempting to reduce its dependence on core advertising revenues, however, these efforts are yet to make any meaningful impact on the company’s top line and margins.


Baidu: Acquisition of YY Live Is More Beneficial to JOYY than Baidu

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Embassy Office Parks REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<section><div id="ember1549">
<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/embassy-office-parks-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27925:1" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) </a> plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  </p></div>
<div><p>The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: </p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-good-assets-but-projections-might-be-a-tad-too-bullish" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-comparison-with-ait-and-a-look-at-the-required-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield</a>, and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-ipo-fy19-revised-down-yield-propped-up-by-zero-coupon-bond" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-trading-update-lowest-volume-traded-for-any-indian-listing-since-2018" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-placement-to-big-to-swallow-if-its-not-a-reverse-enquiry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry</a></li>
</ul></div>
</div></section><p>In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.</p>


Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN)  plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  
The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: 

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield, and
Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018
Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry

In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

2021 High Conviction – Sony’s Year of the PS5

Sony is a key name investors should be focusing on in 2021 as we believe the company has outlined an excellent path to ensuring PS5 dominance and...

Mio Kato

TOPIX Inclusions: New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

The TSE has new Listing Rules and Criteria for TSE1 listing and promotion. That means new analysis on what pre-event trades. One TOP PICK to trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Sony – Stay Long for the Holiday Season PS5 Sales and Beyond

We take a closer look at the hardware advantages of the PS5 which has earned slightly superior benchmarks to the Xbox Series X and ponder what this...

Mio Kato

Baidu: Acquisition of YY Live Is More Beneficial to JOYY than Baidu

Baidu announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with JOYY to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

Embassy Office Parks REIT plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement,...

Sumeet Singh

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