Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inadequate energy supply for the winter has squeezed wholesale prices up, taking yields with it owing to the BoE’s fear of high spot inflation fuelling second-round effects.</li>
<li>The UK government’s new energy price cap removes this as a direct source of inflation and a reason to hike rates near market pricing. It is tactically bullish.</li>
<li>Price caps do not fix supply, so rationing remains likely. Along with the painful fiscal costs, this unimaginative scheme means bearish pressures may reassert in the winter.</li>
</ul>


Inadequate energy supply for the winter has squeezed wholesale prices up, taking yields with it owing to the BoE’s fear of high spot inflation fuelling second-round effects.
The UK government’s new energy price cap removes this as a direct source of inflation and a reason to hike rates near market pricing. It is tactically bullish.
Price caps do not fix supply, so rationing remains likely. Along with the painful fiscal costs, this unimaginative scheme means bearish pressures may reassert in the winter.


Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past few weeks have seen the most violent spike in Brexit fears since January '19, but sentiment analysis suggests the worst is already behind as our Brexit sentiment indicator has already turned positive in recent days on multiple accounts of potential resolution on the most contentious Northern Ireland issue</li>
<li>Since the June '16 referendum, spikes in "No-Deal Brexit" or "Hard Brexit" fears have given us many vol spikes but rarely a superior absolute sell signal for UK equities or GBP/USD</li>
<li>The recent positive dynamic is manifesting in GBP/USD, but in the context of a UK spike in COVID-19 cases and new mobility restrictions, the UK equity picture requires greater conviction on Brexit in order to brighten up</li>
<li>Though negotiations have repeatedly stumbled, greater clarity will likely arrive by the end of this week at the conclusion of Brussels talks</li>
<li>GBP/USD saw a buildup of speculative interest during the summer along with other pro-cyclical currency pairs, but that dynamic has reversed to neutral in recent weeks; nonetheless we still see more outright street recommendations for weak GBP expressions ahead of negotiation outcomes (either outright, or via FX options) suggesting consensus remains preoccupied with negative Brexit outcomes</li>
<li>The magnitude of Brexit sentiment reversal is particularly interesting in light of elevated GBP vols</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


The past few weeks have seen the most violent spike in Brexit fears since January '19, but sentiment analysis suggests the worst is already behind as our Brexit sentiment indicator has already turned positive in recent days on multiple accounts of potential resolution on the most contentious Northern Ireland issue
Since the June '16 referendum, spikes in "No-Deal Brexit" or "Hard Brexit" fears have given us many vol spikes but rarely a superior absolute sell signal for UK equities or GBP/USD
The recent positive dynamic is manifesting in GBP/USD, but in the context of a UK spike in COVID-19 cases and new mobility restrictions, the UK equity picture requires greater conviction on Brexit in order to brighten up
Though negotiations have repeatedly stumbled, greater clarity will likely arrive by the end of this week at the conclusion of Brussels talks
GBP/USD saw a buildup of speculative interest during the summer along with other pro-cyclical currency pairs, but that dynamic has reversed to neutral in recent weeks; nonetheless we still see more outright street recommendations for weak GBP expressions ahead of negotiation outcomes (either outright, or via FX options) suggesting consensus remains preoccupied with negative Brexit outcomes
The magnitude of Brexit sentiment reversal is particularly interesting in light of elevated GBP vols
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: Wild Brexit Sentiment Ride Turning Positive Again?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.</em></p>

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><p><em>The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU do not seem to be progressing well and the clock is ticking. Adding to the complexity of the situation, there is a significant UK contingent whose incentives are not aligned with securing the best possible deal for Britain, Brexit Secretary David Davis’s intended objective.</em></p><p><em>If you thought HBO’s smash-hit series Game of Thrones had twisting devious plots and sub-plots, lies and propaganda, it is nothing compared to what is going on in the</em>…</p>

SummaryThe Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU do not seem to be progressing well and the clock is ticking. Adding to the complexity of the situation, there is a significant UK contingent whose incentives are not aligned with securing the best possible deal for Britain, Brexit Secretary David Davis’s intended objective.If you thought HBO’s smash-hit series Game of Thrones had twisting devious plots and sub-plots, lies and propaganda, it is nothing compared to what is going on in the…

The Market Sentimentalist - Game Of Brexit

United Kingdom

SPDR Barclays 1-5 Year Gilt UCITS ETF is an open ended, UCITS IV compliant, physically-backed exchange traded fund, domiciled in Ireland. The Fund's objective is to track the performance of the short-dated UK Government bond (Gilt) market, as represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Capital UK Gilt 1-5 Year Index.

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Spdr Barclays 1 - 5 Year Gilt (GLTS LN)

UK: Bullishly Capping Yields with Energy

The UK government’s new energy price cap is tactically bullish for the UK. However, price caps do not fix supply, so rationing remains likely....

Phil Rush

TMI Snapshots: Wild Brexit Sentiment Ride Turning Positive Again?

Since the June '16 referendum, Brexit has given us

Elan Gore

Global Bond Yields Set to Rise Further

We see higher US and global yields developing. Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade...

Greg Gibbs

The Market Sentimentalist - Game Of Brexit

SummaryThe Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU do not seem to be progressing well and the clock is ticking. Adding to the complexity of...

Amareos

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