Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>U.S. equity averages recently violated their 200 dma but a historical study found that violations are benign as long as the moving average is rising.</li>
<li>The rising dma is only evident in the megacap growth-dominated S&amp;P 500. Mid and small caps are becoming value candidates.</li>
<li>How you position yourself will depend on your time horizon and whether you are a momentum or value investor.</li>
</ul>


U.S. equity averages recently violated their 200 dma but a historical study found that violations are benign as long as the moving average is rising.
The rising dma is only evident in the megacap growth-dominated S&amp;P 500. Mid and small caps are becoming value candidates.
How you position yourself will depend on your time horizon and whether you are a momentum or value investor.


How the U.S. Could Both Be In A Bull and Bear Market

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.</li><li>As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.</li><li>YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?</li></ul>

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers</li>
<li>Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.


Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is at a key technical crossroad as it tests support at 4100 </li>
<li>The market is oversold, but not as oversold as during the sell-offs in 2022, opening the door to further weakness. Sentiment is turning to indicate a near-term bottom.</li>
<li>We judge the odds of a year-end rally at 70% and further weakness at 30%.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is at a key technical crossroad as it tests support at 4100 
The market is oversold, but not as oversold as during the sell-offs in 2022, opening the door to further weakness. Sentiment is turning to indicate a near-term bottom.
We judge the odds of a year-end rally at 70% and further weakness at 30%.


Could This Be The Start of a Major Bearish Episode?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

How the U.S. Could Both Be In A Bull and Bear Market

U.S. equity averages recently violated their 200 dma but a historical study found that violations are benign only when the moving average is...

Cam Hui

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy. As...

Steno Research

Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

$RTY $IWM $SPX $SPY and the % of stocks above their 50-day MAs (and 20-day MAs) display bullish breadth divergences. Similar bullish divergences in...

Vermilion Research

Could This Be The Start of a Major Bearish Episode?

The S&P 500 is at a key technical crossroad. The market is oversold but not as oversold as it was during the sell-offs in 2022, which opens the...

Cam Hui

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