Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology stocks.</p><p>The biggest benefit to the US tech sector will come from lower tax rates. The biggest risk is trade wars that result in higher tariffs and retaliation against US tech companies. The wildcard is regulation: net neutrality rules – if relaxed – could shift the balance of power from internet companies to telcos.</p><p>Below we look at five themes emanating from Mr Trump's policies that have a direct impact on the global tech sector: taxation, trade, regulation, cybersecurity and social media.</p>

As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology stocks.The biggest benefit to the US tech sector will come from lower tax rates. The biggest risk is trade wars that result in higher tariffs and retaliation against US tech companies. The wildcard is regulation: net neutrality rules – if relaxed – could shift the balance of power from internet companies to telcos.Below we look at five themes emanating from Mr Trump's policies that have a direct impact on the global tech sector: taxation, trade, regulation, cybersecurity and social media.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>We recommended going negative on a Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) related basket of stocks on October 1st, 2016. This short has been working pretty well. From From September 30th to November 9th, this basket of THAAD related stocks was down 9.4% on average while KOSPI was down 5.1% during the same period. <strong>We believe now is the time to close out the THAAD related basket of shorts. </strong>We give three reasons why.</p><ol><li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>There are increasing indications that the next Trump administration may not enforce</strong>…</div></li></ol>

We recommended going negative on a Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) related basket of stocks on October 1st, 2016. This short has been working pretty well. From From September 30th to November 9th, this basket of THAAD related stocks was down 9.4% on average while KOSPI was down 5.1% during the same period. We believe now is the time to close out the THAAD related basket of shorts. We give three reasons why.
There are increasing indications that the next Trump administration may not enforce…

Close Out the Shorts on THAAD Related Basket - TRUMP May Not Enforce THAAD Deployment

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. </p><p>I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.</p>

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

<p>Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.</p>

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

What Trump Means for Tech

As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology...

CM Research

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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What Trump Means for Tech

As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology...

CM Research

Close Out the Shorts on THAAD Related Basket - TRUMP May Not Enforce THAAD Deployment

We recommended going negative on a Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) related basket of stocks on October 1st, 2016. This short has been...

Douglas Kim

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA