Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Macroeconomics

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreads</li><li class="p1">After many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growth</li><li class="p1">A year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territory</li></ul>Analysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreadsAfter many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growthA year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territoryAnalysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.</li><li>But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.</li><li>The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.</li><li>Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.</li><li>TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.</li></ul>

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.

<ul><li class="p1">We view the overall market as slightly undervalued, based on our fair value estimates for approximately 1,500 global companies.</li><li class="p1">The financial services, consumer cyclical, and healthcare sectors are the most undervalued, while the basic materials sector is our only overvalued sector.</li><li class="p1">Oil price concerns are hurting the financial services sector, while divergent paths for China’s future fixed asset investment growth and consumption inform our thinking in the basic materials and consumer cyclical sectors.</li></ul>Analyst: Elizabeth Collins

We view the overall market as slightly undervalued, based on our fair value estimates for approximately 1,500 global companies.The financial services, consumer cyclical, and healthcare sectors are the most undervalued, while the basic materials sector is our only overvalued sector.Oil price concerns are hurting the financial services sector, while divergent paths for China’s future fixed asset investment growth and consumption inform our thinking in the basic materials and consumer cyclical sectors.Analyst: Elizabeth Collins

Stock Market Outlook: Stocks Start to Look More Attractive

<ul><li class="p1">The idea of e-commerce as a disruptive force is not new, with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable making everyday purchases online or through mobile devices across many developed economies.</li><li class="p1">However, as we take a step back and examine the various states of digital commerce across different geographies, we find a number of constants in not only how winners in the digital commerce space rise to the top in each region, but also how these players develop lasting network effects that serve as the foundation of the wide economic moats we assign to many of the leading players in this industry across the globe.</li></ul>Analysts: R.J. Hottovy, Suruchi Jain, Daniel Mueller

The idea of e-commerce as a disruptive force is not new, with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable making everyday purchases online or through mobile devices across many developed economies.However, as we take a step back and examine the various states of digital commerce across different geographies, we find a number of constants in not only how winners in the digital commerce space rise to the top in each region, but also how these players develop lasting network effects that serve as the foundation of the wide economic moats we assign to many of the leading players in this industry across the globe.Analysts: R.J. Hottovy, Suruchi Jain, Daniel Mueller

The Global E-Commerce Handbook: Themes Investors Need to Know as Consumer Shopping Tendencies Evolve

United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

Morningstar Markets Observer: Q2 2016

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and...

Morningstar, Inc.

Internet TV as an Investment Theme

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to...

CM Research

Stock Market Outlook: Stocks Start to Look More Attractive

We view the overall market as slightly undervalued, based on our fair value estimates for approximately 1,500 global companies. The financial...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Global E-Commerce Handbook: Themes Investors Need to Know as Consumer Shopping Tendencies Evolve

The idea of e-commerce as a disruptive force is not new, with consumers becoming increasingly comfortable making everyday purchases online or...

Morningstar, Inc.

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