Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.</li><li>Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easing</li><li>ii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.</li><li>iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. </li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easingii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. 

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

<ul>
<li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).</li>
<li>ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.</li>
<li>On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. </li>
</ul>


KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).
ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.
On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. 


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Monthly Report: September 2024

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

Monthly Report: June 2024

On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 26, 2024

echnically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 23, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

Krungthai XSpring