Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

*For Sale: According to press reports, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG] is contemplating a sale of its US banking subsidiary, MUFG Americas – the 22nd largest bank in the US by assets, in a significant strategy shift;  and  *Don’t Expect A Big Premium: Bloomberg suggests that the median sale price for large US banks was approximately 1.4x P/BV last year – implying a deal price of over USD 22 bn. In addition to the price tag limiting the number of potential suitors, any acquirer will have to contend with breaching the national deposit cap. As such, pricing likely would below last year’s US average – particularly considering MUFG America’s fundamental challenges.

*For Sale: According to press reports, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG] is contemplating a sale of its US banking subsidiary, MUFG Americas – the 22nd largest bank in the US by assets, in a significant strategy shift;  and  *Don’t Expect A Big Premium: Bloomberg suggests that the median sale price for large US banks was approximately 1.4x P/BV last year – implying a deal price of over USD 22 bn. In addition to the price tag limiting the number of potential suitors, any acquirer will have to contend with breaching the national deposit cap. As such, pricing likely would below last year’s US average – particularly considering MUFG America’s fundamental challenges.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – US Exit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).</div><div>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).</div><div>
We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-pre-ipo-many-companies-rolled-into-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one</a>.
In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.
</div>

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).
We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one.
In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.


Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

On Monday 23 August, Mizuho Bank suffered its 6th systems failure so far this year.  This time, some 130 of its around 5,300 ATMs stopped working for about an hour just after noon.  This comes in the wake of last Friday’s débâcle, when the bank opened its doors for business at 09:00am but none of the computer terminals at its counters nationwide would function properly.  Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or is the fundamental problem a more human one?
While management searches for solutions, and the inevitable finger-pointing continues, the bank’s reputation erodes.  The damage to the share price of parent company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) has so far been comparatively light, but for how much longer?  MHFG has markedly underperformed its two megabank rivals <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> so far this year in a rising market, with its stock price up just +6.5% YoY against MUFG’s +34.6% and SMFG’s +21.3%, respectively.  Foreign investors still own in aggregate over 22% of MHFG’s stock, but their patience is being sorely tested.  Further revelations of systems mishaps, or punitive actions by the FSA against MHFG, may well lead to a swift exit by some shareholders; a sell-off cannot be ruled out.
Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

On Monday 23 August, Mizuho Bank suffered its 6th systems failure so far this year.  This time, some 130 of its around 5,300 ATMs stopped working for about an hour just after noon.  This comes in the wake of last Friday’s débâcle, when the bank opened its doors for business at 09:00am but none of the computer terminals at its counters nationwide would function properly.  Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or is the fundamental problem a more human one?
While management searches for solutions, and the inevitable finger-pointing continues, the bank’s reputation erodes.  The damage to the share price of parent company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) has so far been comparatively light, but for how much longer?  MHFG has markedly underperformed its two megabank rivals Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) so far this year in a rising market, with its stock price up just +6.5% YoY against MUFG’s +34.6% and SMFG’s +21.3%, respectively.  Foreign investors still own in aggregate over 22% of MHFG’s stock, but their patience is being sorely tested.  Further revelations of systems mishaps, or punitive actions by the FSA against MHFG, may well lead to a swift exit by some shareholders; a sell-off cannot be ruled out.
Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP):  Systemic Failures - A Human Factor?

Gotōbi (or 五十日 in Japanese) is any date with a ‘5’ or a ‘0’ in it.  In Japan, traditionally, it is a day when money owed is collected and accounts due are settled.  Fridays are always busy days commercially, but when Friday is also a gotōbi things get particularly hectic.  It is a busy day for the banks, too, with a noticeable rise in customer visits to branches and a surge in across-counter transactions, especially in cash and securities.Last Friday, 20th August 2021, was a gotōbi. Imagine, then, the horror that seized bank staff at all 450+ branches of Mizuho Bank (not to mention at its sister organisation Mizuho Trust Bank, where the same thing happened), as 09:00am bank opening time approached, customers were queuing up, and they realised that none of the computer terminals at their counters were working.  None of them; nationwide.Curiously, all the ATMs (source of two previous systems failures) were working normally, as was Mizuho Bank’s Internet banking platform, ‘Mizuho Direct’.  By 10:00am on Friday, most operations were back up and running (except for some foreign currency remittances) and by midday all systems appear to have returned to normal operation.  Management is still trying to establish the cause of the glitch.This now makes the 5th time in 2021 that Mizuho Bank, the principal commercial banking subsidiary of megabank holding company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (MHFG), has had a systems failure.  That it happened on a gotōbi was embarrassing enough in view of the inconvenience to the many customers visiting the bank’s branches at the time.  Doubly embarrassing for management, inspectors from the Financial Services Agency (FSA) were in the process of winding-up their detailed and long inspection of the bank over the four previous systems malfunctions, with a view to deciding whether the bank should be disciplined for the successive failures through the issuance of a Business Correction Order.  That issuance would now seem to be an inevitability.  A formal demand for a detailed report into the incident (報告微求命令 or hōkoku bikyū meirei in Japanese) has already been issued by the FSA to Mizuho Trust Bank as well as to the parent MHFG.Senior management clearly has much to do in the wake of this latest incident to restore Mizuho’s reputation among customers as a brand that is synonymous with reliability.As we have said in past Smartkarma Insights, MHFG’s lack of consistency, either in profit generation or management execution, makes this a difficult stock to recommend on fundamentals.  This latest systems débâcle will not improve its already battered reputation.  MHFG has time and again promised much but then has either failed to deliver or has surprised the market with sudden sweeping changes in strategy, requiring long time-horizons for implementation and where ultimately delivering value remains frustratingly elusive.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

Gotōbi (or 五十日 in Japanese) is any date with a ‘5’ or a ‘0’ in it.  In Japan, traditionally, it is a day when money owed is collected and accounts due are settled.  Fridays are always busy days commercially, but when Friday is also a gotōbi things get particularly hectic.  It is a busy day for the banks, too, with a noticeable rise in customer visits to branches and a surge in across-counter transactions, especially in cash and securities.Last Friday, 20th August 2021, was a gotōbi. Imagine, then, the horror that seized bank staff at all 450+ branches of Mizuho Bank (not to mention at its sister organisation Mizuho Trust Bank, where the same thing happened), as 09:00am bank opening time approached, customers were queuing up, and they realised that none of the computer terminals at their counters were working.  None of them; nationwide.Curiously, all the ATMs (source of two previous systems failures) were working normally, as was Mizuho Bank’s Internet banking platform, ‘Mizuho Direct’.  By 10:00am on Friday, most operations were back up and running (except for some foreign currency remittances) and by midday all systems appear to have returned to normal operation.  Management is still trying to establish the cause of the glitch.This now makes the 5th time in 2021 that Mizuho Bank, the principal commercial banking subsidiary of megabank holding company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (MHFG), has had a systems failure.  That it happened on a gotōbi was embarrassing enough in view of the inconvenience to the many customers visiting the bank’s branches at the time.  Doubly embarrassing for management, inspectors from the Financial Services Agency (FSA) were in the process of winding-up their detailed and long inspection of the bank over the four previous systems malfunctions, with a view to deciding whether the bank should be disciplined for the successive failures through the issuance of a Business Correction Order.  That issuance would now seem to be an inevitability.  A formal demand for a detailed report into the incident (報告微求命令 or hōkoku bikyū meirei in Japanese) has already been issued by the FSA to Mizuho Trust Bank as well as to the parent MHFG.Senior management clearly has much to do in the wake of this latest incident to restore Mizuho’s reputation among customers as a brand that is synonymous with reliability.As we have said in past Smartkarma Insights, MHFG’s lack of consistency, either in profit generation or management execution, makes this a difficult stock to recommend on fundamentals.  This latest systems débâcle will not improve its already battered reputation.  MHFG has time and again promised much but then has either failed to deliver or has surprised the market with sudden sweeping changes in strategy, requiring long time-horizons for implementation and where ultimately delivering value remains frustratingly elusive.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP):  Gotohbi Gremlins

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/895/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0628-ZeroSheFlies-TPNBNKvsTPXin2021.jpg?1624939811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215895"></figure></section>

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – US Exit

MUFG: MUFG is contemplating the sale of its US banking subsidiary. In addition to the price tag limiting the number of suitors, so will breaching a...

Thomas J. Monaco

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP): Systemic Failures - A Human Factor?

Mizuho Bank has now had 6 systems failures so far this year. Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP): Gotohbi Gremlins

Mizuho Bank has suffered its 5th systems failure so far this year, and the FSA is not amused. Neither should shareholders be. Caveat Emptor! (May...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: Zero She Flies

The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance. Zero growth beckons. Caveat Emptor...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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