Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.</li>
<li>Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.</li>
<li>We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.</li>
</ul>


There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.


Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference tonight Asia time. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their key roles.</li>
<li>AUO's chairman said that he expects PC panel demand to return to normal levels later this year; indicating another sign of potential improvement in the PC and display space.</li>
<li>PC maker Asustek was a top loser in the past week; we highlight it as a potential Long/Short opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference tonight Asia time. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their key roles.
AUO's chairman said that he expects PC panel demand to return to normal levels later this year; indicating another sign of potential improvement in the PC and display space.
PC maker Asustek was a top loser in the past week; we highlight it as a potential Long/Short opportunity.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.</li>
<li>The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.</li>
<li>Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.</li>
</ul>


EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.


Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. </li>
<li>The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.</li>
<li>I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.</li>
</ul>


IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. 
The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.
I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.


Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

​IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...

Nicolas Baratte

IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...