Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel (INTC US)</a> is starting to look less competitive.</li>
<li>According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
</li>
<li>While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.

While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.


TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
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TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs</li>
<li>
ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long</li>
<li>
CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs

ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long

CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s 18A technology.</li>
<li>It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Monthly sales are volatile and must be looked at with a modicum of circumspection. Yet, TSMC April revenue growth accelerated to +48% YoY and represent 39% of 2Q revenue guidance. </li>
<li>This opens the possibility of TSMC delivering a decent beat in 2Q. UMC April revenue are inline, Vanguard is below. </li>
<li>Remarkably, TSMC stock is not expensive at 15.4x 2025 EPS, 13x 2026EPS. It is actually the 2nd cheapest stock after UMC.</li>
</ul>


Monthly sales are volatile and must be looked at with a modicum of circumspection. Yet, TSMC April revenue growth accelerated to +48% YoY and represent 39% of 2Q revenue guidance. 
This opens the possibility of TSMC delivering a decent beat in 2Q. UMC April revenue are inline, Vanguard is below. 
Remarkably, TSMC stock is not expensive at 15.4x 2025 EPS, 13x 2026EPS. It is actually the 2nd cheapest stock after UMC.


Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

<ul>
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TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand</li>
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Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm &amp; Mediatek's Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs -- And All Roads Lead to TSMC's Process Technology</li>
<li>
Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG</li>
</ul>



TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand

Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm &amp; Mediatek's Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs -- And All Roads Lead to TSMC's Process Technology

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

​TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

​TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

​TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

​TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.