Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread
ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown
ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

<ul>
<li>We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.</li>
<li>Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  </li>
</ul>


We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.</li>
<li>UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?</li>
<li>TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.</li>
</ul>


Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.
UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?
TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.


TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

<ul>
<li>Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done</li>
<li>TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.</li>
<li>Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?</li>
</ul>


Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?


UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx

​Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Nicolas Baratte

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

​Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 0% revenue growth in 2Q25, but US tariffs could impact, as Taiwan takes measures to prevent stock market slump.

Customers are willing to pay top dollar for 2nm chips, UMC's Singapore expansion nears completion. TSMC and UMC trading below average PE ratios....

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...