Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom</li>
<li>CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

<ul>
<li>Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative</li>
<li>Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E</li>
<li>SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings </li>
</ul>


Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E
SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>After the peak of 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> could present products around 1Q26.</li>
<li>TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. </li>
</ul>


After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated</li>
<li>UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated
UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling
ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> established "Intel Foundry Services" in 2021, but it has not shown notable performance until now.</li>
<li>There is some pessimism regarding providing foundry services in the US.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> should provide foundry services to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> and potentially other common clients as well.  </li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) established "Intel Foundry Services" in 2021, but it has not shown notable performance until now.
There is some pessimism regarding providing foundry services in the US.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) should provide foundry services to Intel Corp (INTC US) and potentially other common clients as well.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

"Intel Foundry Services" has not performed well, leading to doubts about its US foundry services. TSMC may step in to provide foundry services for...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

​TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

​TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

"Intel Foundry Services" has not performed well, leading to doubts about its US foundry services. TSMC may step in to provide foundry services for...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...