Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.</li>
<li>Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.</li>
</ul>


Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.
Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&amp;D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.
Valuation &amp; growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.


Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , China Mobile (941 HK) , Softbank Group (9984 JP)



Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money</li>
<li>However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future
</li>
<li>Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab &amp; Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &amp; rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously</li>
</ul>


OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money
However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab &amp; Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &amp; rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously


@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated holding was USD1,163.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD428mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer, Global Unichip, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated holding was USD1,163.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD428mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer, Global Unichip, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 29th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment, Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 5th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment, Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor, Hon Hai Precision, Kaori Heat Treatment.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &...

William Keating

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 29th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT), Wiwynn...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

​Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...

Rahul Jain

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &...

William Keating

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 29th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Delta Electronics, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 5th): Jentech Precision Industrial, Wiwynn, Realtek Semiconductor

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Jentech Precision Industrial (3653 TT), Wiwynn...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Despite a soft Q1, TEL has doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with plans for significant expansion and potential upside in valuation compared...