Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.</li><li>Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.</li><li>Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.</li></ul>

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goviex-uranium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35742:1" rel="noopener">GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN)</a> will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.   </li>
<li>TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative.    TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion. </li>
<li>The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.   
TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative.    TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion. 
The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.


TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Odd lot tender opportunity with Talen Energy offering potential gain of $594 on $11,000 investment</li><li>Stock trading below lower bound of tender offer range at $110</li><li>Buyback of $600 million of stock via tender offer with range of $116 to $122 per share if tendered by 6/12/2024, offering 5% return in just a week with risk of offer not being fully subscribed</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Odd lot tender opportunity with Talen Energy offering potential gain of $594 on $11,000 investmentStock trading below lower bound of tender offer range at $110Buyback of $600 million of stock via tender offer with range of $116 to $122 per share if tendered by 6/12/2024, offering 5% return in just a week with risk of offer not being fully subscribedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) - Thursday, Jun 6, 2024

<ul><li>Amazon purchases data center asset from Talen Energy Corp with fixed price over 10 years</li><li>Microsoft announces $100 billion initiative for data centers</li><li>U.S. power prices expected to rise due to increasing demand from data centers, EVs, and more, with Goldman Sachs predicting 15% annual growth in power consumption driven by data centers</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Amazon purchases data center asset from Talen Energy Corp with fixed price over 10 yearsMicrosoft announces $100 billion initiative for data centersU.S. power prices expected to rise due to increasing demand from data centers, EVs, and more, with Goldman Sachs predicting 15% annual growth in power consumption driven by data centersThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) - Friday, May 31, 2024

United States

Talen Energy Corporation provides utility services. The Company generates, distributes, transmits, and markets electricity, as well as produces and supplies natural gas and other renewable energy products for residential and commercial users. Talen Energy serves customers in the United States.

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Talen Energy (TLNE US)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

TLN issued 2025 guidance that put our original numbers at the low end of the forecast giving us confidence the business could achieve over $1...

BWS Financial Inc

Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) - Thursday, Jun 6, 2024

Odd lot tender opportunity with Talen Energy offering potential gain of $594 on $11,000 investment. Stock trading below lower bound of tender offer...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) - Friday, May 31, 2024

Amazon purchases data center asset from Talen Energy Corp with fixed price over 10 years. Microsoft announces $100 billion initiative for data centers

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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