'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>We resume our regular coverage of Japan's results and revision announcements.</strong></p></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/188/original/2021-03-14_06-55-01.png?1615672515" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194188"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>STATE OF PLAY</strong> - As a reminder, the market's overall cap-weighted Results &amp; Revision Score is still negative, although its Forecast/Revision Score has recovered to +2.1.  Seventeen of twenty-nine Sectors have positive combined scores. Only two Sectors -<strong> Internet</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications</strong> have seen a decline in score over the last three months of more than 0.5 points. The greatest positive momentum is in the <strong>Multi-Industry</strong> (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>), <strong>Restaurants</strong> and<strong> Machinery</strong> Sectors.  Of the top-twelve ranked Sectors by current Combined Score, only Energy, Technology Hardware, and Non-Bank Finance have out-performed the market since mod-December. As noted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-post-covid-rotation-accelerates" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48644" rel="noopener">earlier</a>, the market is 'skating to where the puck will be'. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Friday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ya-man-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16129:1" rel="noopener">Ya Man (6630 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tanseisha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10898:1" rel="noopener">Tanseisha (9743 JP)</a>, respectively. For more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/191/original/2021-03-14_07-36-44.png?1615675015" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194191"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/192/original/2021-03-14_07-39-19.png?1615675171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194192"></figure><p><strong>STILL 'IN THE WOODS'</strong> - Overall, of the 55 results announcements, 45% scored positively for earnings momentum. Trailing revenues are still declining  - by 8.7% on average, while quarterly revenues fell by 2% year-on-year. Trailing operating margins saw an average 8.2 point decline. 16% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  60% of the 43 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively. The average Forecast/Revision score was a positive 3.8 points.</p></section>

We resume our regular coverage of Japan's results and revision announcements.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsSTATE OF PLAY - As a reminder, the market's overall cap-weighted Results &amp; Revision Score is still negative, although its Forecast/Revision Score has recovered to +2.1.  Seventeen of twenty-nine Sectors have positive combined scores. Only two Sectors - Internet and Telecommunications have seen a decline in score over the last three months of more than 0.5 points. The greatest positive momentum is in the Multi-Industry (Japan Post (6178 JP)), Restaurants and Machinery Sectors.  Of the top-twelve ranked Sectors by current Combined Score, only Energy, Technology Hardware, and Non-Bank Finance have out-performed the market since mod-December. As noted earlier, the market is 'skating to where the puck will be'. • BEST &amp; WORST •Friday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Ya Man (6630 JP) and Tanseisha (9743 JP), respectively. For more, see the DETAIL section below.STILL 'IN THE WOODS' - Overall, of the 55 results announcements, 45% scored positively for earnings momentum. Trailing revenues are still declining  - by 8.7% on average, while quarterly revenues fell by 2% year-on-year. Trailing operating margins saw an average 8.2 point decline. 16% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  60% of the 43 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively. The average Forecast/Revision score was a positive 3.8 points.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/12 - Ya-Man, Tanseisha & Sharp

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>There were no large-cap announcements yesterday, so our best and worst pairing are small-caps food preparation specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-life-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25948:1" rel="noopener">Silver Life (9262 JP)</a>, and design shop <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tanseisha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10898:1" rel="noopener">Tanseisha (9743 JP)</a> - for more see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below. </p><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/177/580/original/2020-12-10_06-01-12.png?1607547685" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="177580"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/177/581/original/2020-12-10_05-59-34.png?1607547699" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="177581"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  </div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •There were no large-cap announcements yesterday, so our best and worst pairing are small-caps food preparation specialist Silver Life (9262 JP), and design shop Tanseisha (9743 JP) - for more see the DETAIL below. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 It's a Silver Life, Tanseisha

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/456/original/2020-09-12_13-08-43.png?1599883751" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158456"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all Charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YET TO BOTTOM OUT</strong> - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/458/original/2020-09-12_13-20-58.png?1599884472" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/459/original/2020-09-12_13-31-24.png?1599885118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158459"></figure><p></p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/449/original/2020-09-12_10-38-08.png?1599874697" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158449"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/451/original/2020-09-12_10-40-00.png?1599874819" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158451"></figure><p>Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cre-inc-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25924:1" rel="noopener">CRE (3458 JP)</a> and personal products provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ya-man-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16129:1" rel="noopener">Ya Man (6630 JP)</a>. The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heroz-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27106:1" rel="noopener">Heroz (4382 JP)</a> and commercial design and display specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tanseisha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10898:1" rel="noopener">Tanseisha (9743 JP)</a>, the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/452/original/2020-09-12_10-41-46.png?1599874918" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158452"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/453/original/2020-09-12_10-43-21.png?1599875013" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158453"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>50%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>66%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 69%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>29%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>48 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.9 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.9 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all Charts: Japan AnalyticsYET TO BOTTOM OUT - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.• BEST &amp; WORST •Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company CRE (3458 JP) and personal products provider Ya Man (6630 JP). The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company Heroz (4382 JP) and commercial design and display specialist Tanseisha (9743 JP), the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. 

DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 29% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.48 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative

Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.9 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

Japan

TANSEISHA CO., LTD. plans, designs, remodels, renovates, and contracts display works mainly for commercial facilities, exhibitions, and museums.  The Company also provides construction works.  Tanseisha's main customers include government agencies.

Tanseisha (9743 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/12 - Ya-Man, Tanseisha & Sharp

We resume our regular coverage of Japan's results and revision announcements...............................................................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/09 It's a Silver Life, Tanseisha

There were no large-cap announcements yesterday, so our best and worst pairing are small-caps food preparation specialist Silver Life (9262 JP),...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/12 - Ya-Man, Tanseisha & Sharp

We resume our regular coverage of Japan's results and revision announcements...............................................................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 It's a Silver Life, Tanseisha

There were no large-cap announcements yesterday, so our best and worst pairing are small-caps food preparation specialist Silver Life (9262 JP),...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/09 It's a Silver Life, Tanseisha

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha