Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In our view, the upcoming release of Tata Motors' financial statements for FY 2019-20 (scheduled for May 30th) will be of limited value, given the rapid spread and drastic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While we anticipate a poor Q4/19-20, this would be likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the outbreak only from mid-March onwards. Hence, Q1/20-21 (ending in June) will probably register the worst impact. In addition, we expect the global economy will take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe the credit profile may become stressed. We change our overall risk assessment to "Very High Risk" on the LARA scale and move our trade recommendation to "Not Recommended".

  In our view, the upcoming release of Tata Motors' financial statements for FY 2019-20 (scheduled for May 30th) will be of limited value, given the rapid spread and drastic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While we anticipate a poor Q4/19-20, this would be likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the outbreak only from mid-March onwards. Hence, Q1/20-21 (ending in June) will probably register the worst impact. In addition, we expect the global economy will take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe the credit profile may become stressed.   We change our overall risk assessment to "Very High Risk" on the LARA scale and move our trade recommendation to "Not Recommended". 

Tata Motors - Event Flash - COVID-19 Update - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and equity markets were buoyed by central bank stimulus and more positive headlines on the pandemic. This month, we consider the effect of this unprecedented event on the investor psyche, which could heighten risk aversion for some time and weigh heavily on Asian HY corporate credit. We also present a trade idea for Chinese property bonds, where we see promise amid the current uncertainty. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and equity markets were buoyed by central bank stimulus and more positive headlines on the pandemic. This month, we consider the effect of this unprecedented event on the investor psyche, which could heighten risk aversion for some time and weigh heavily on Asian HY corporate credit. We also present a trade idea for Chinese property bonds, where we see promise amid the current uncertainty.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Impact Of COVID-19 On Investment Strategy - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7613'>China Aoyuan Property</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5225'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13359'>Lenovo</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-17982'>Sawit Sumbermas Sarana</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-12763'>Tata Motors ADR</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-17690'>Tunas Baru Lampung</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-473'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-3474'>Yuzhou Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Aoyuan PropertyCountry Garden Holdings CoLenovoSawit Sumbermas SaranaTata Motors ADRTunas Baru LampungWynn Macau LtdYuzhou Group

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Country Garden Holdings Co, Lenovo, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8205'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-472'>MGM China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-17982'>Sawit Sumbermas Sarana</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China South CityMGM China HoldingsSawit Sumbermas SaranaTata Motors Ltd

Morning Views Asia: China South City, MGM China Holdings, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana, Tata Motors Ltd

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2020 - Lucror Analytics

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited provides cars and commercial vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells fossil fuel and electric cars, as well as heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances, and mini-buses. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles serves customers worldwide.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

Tata Motors - Event Flash - COVID-19 Update - Lucror Analytics

In our view, the upcoming release of Tata Motors' financial statements for FY 2019-20 (scheduled for May 30th) will be of limited value, given the...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Impact Of COVID-19 On Investment Strategy - Lucror Analytics

The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Country Garden Holdings Co, Lenovo, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China South City, MGM China Holdings, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana, Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value...

Lucror Analytics

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