Fundamental Equity Research Analysis, Ben Jones Investments

Ben Jones Investments

Fundamental Equity Research Analysis

BJI provides high conviction investment ideas on listed equities to institutional clients and high net worth individuals through our annual research subscription. We conduct fundamental bottom-up research on businesses that we believe trade to a discount against their intrinsic value with a wide margin of safety. Our aim is to generate investment ideas capable of long-term sustainable returns on capital. Our research is based on the following principles:

Independent ideas that are based on our own detailed research on businesses we understand. We are not commissioned or compensated by companies that are the subject of reports.

Intrinsic value is our calculation of the business based on the cash we expect the business to return to its owners over the future, discounted at an appropriate rate.

Margin of safety is a vital part of our philosophy. It’s the gap between the market value of a company and our perception of intrinsic value. All attempts of understanding intrinsic value rely on assumptions that can’t be perfectly forecast. Significant margin of safety is the logic that minimises losses if intrinsic value has been overestimated, while allowing for greater than expected returns if underestimated.

Value is what our research seeks to uncover and provide to our clients.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.</li>
<li>Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2 years in response to rising mortgage rates.</li>
<li>While we acknowledge the short to medium term impact of rising rates, we see Taylor Wimpey’s long-term profitability as strong, and worth twice their current valuation.</li>
</ul>


Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.
Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2 years in response to rising mortgage rates.
While we acknowledge the short to medium term impact of rising rates, we see Taylor Wimpey’s long-term profitability as strong, and worth twice their current valuation.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Consumer Discretionary is the strongest consensus overweight among UK active funds, with 85% positioned above the FTSE All Share Index.</li>
<li>The sector’s relative overweight has climbed steadily to decade highs, with 85% of funds positioned above benchmark.</li>
<li>Stock-Level tilts show consistent preference for Burberry, Whitbread, and Next, alongside reductions in Taylor Wimpey, Dowlais, and Frasers Group.</li>
</ul>


Consumer Discretionary is the strongest consensus overweight among UK active funds, with 85% positioned above the FTSE All Share Index.
The sector’s relative overweight has climbed steadily to decade highs, with 85% of funds positioned above benchmark.
Stock-Level tilts show consistent preference for Burberry, Whitbread, and Next, alongside reductions in Taylor Wimpey, Dowlais, and Frasers Group.


UK Consumer Discretionary Positioning: A Consensus Overweight

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for F100 and six regular changes for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.</li>
<li>After that, we expect multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for F100 and six regular changes for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.
After that, we expect multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes over the next few weeks.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

<ul>
<li>UK active funds are buying back in to the UK Homebuilding sector, with ownership showing consistent increases from the lows of early 2024.</li>
<li>Over the past six months, Homebuilding recorded the third-largest increase in fund participation, trailing only Agricultural Commodities and Pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>At the stock level, the sector remains highly concentrated. Four companies — Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, Barratt Redrow, and Persimmon — account for 81% of the total allocation.</li>
</ul>


UK active funds are buying back in to the UK Homebuilding sector, with ownership showing consistent increases from the lows of early 2024.
Over the past six months, Homebuilding recorded the third-largest increase in fund participation, trailing only Agricultural Commodities and Pharmaceuticals.
At the stock level, the sector remains highly concentrated. Four companies — Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, Barratt Redrow, and Persimmon — account for 81% of the total allocation.


UK Homebuilding: Allocations Rebounds as Sentiment Improves

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

United Kingdom

Taylor Wimpey plc, through its subsidiaries, conducts business in the housing, construction and engineering, and property development and investment sectors. The Group has international housing activities in the United Kingdom and Spain.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taylor Wimpey (TW/ LN)

Taylor Wimpey Research Report

Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2...

Ben Jones Investments

UK Consumer Discretionary Positioning: A Consensus Overweight

Consumer Discretionary is the UK’s standout active overweight. Absolute allocations are stable, but the sector’s relative overweight has surged to...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

F100/250 Sep25 index changes will be confirmed after market close today. Yesterday was the base date for final ranks. Please see discussion point...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Homebuilding: Allocations Rebounds as Sentiment Improves

UK active funds are increasing their ownership in the UK Homebuilding sector, with significant concentration in four key companies.

Steven Holden

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taylor Wimpey Research Report

Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2...

Ben Jones Investments

UK Consumer Discretionary Positioning: A Consensus Overweight

Consumer Discretionary is the UK’s standout active overweight. Absolute allocations are stable, but the sector’s relative overweight has surged to...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: ~10 Regular & Intra-Review Changes Likely in September

F100/250 Sep25 index changes will be confirmed after market close today. Yesterday was the base date for final ranks. Please see discussion point...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Homebuilding: Allocations Rebounds as Sentiment Improves

​UK active funds are increasing their ownership in the UK Homebuilding sector, with significant concentration in four key companies.

Steven Holden

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

UK active funds are increasing their ownership in the UK Homebuilding sector, with significant concentration in four key companies.