Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a> and partners awarded the key contracts for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, which makes the project's sanction almost certain. Despite this, it delayed the final investment decision (FID) until next year. Another bumper set of contract awards are going to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technipfmc-plc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27505:1">TechnipFMC PLC (FTI FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jgc-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19335:1">Jgc Corp (1963 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fluor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1769:1">Fluor Corp (FLR US)</a>. Yet another positive for the LNG contractor market.

Exxon Mobil (XOM US) and partners awarded the key contracts for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, which makes the project's sanction almost certain. Despite this, it delayed the final investment decision (FID) until next year. Another bumper set of contract awards are going to TechnipFMC PLC (FTI FP), Jgc Corp (1963 JP) and Fluor Corp (FLR US). Yet another positive for the LNG contractor market. 

Exxon's Mozambique LNG Project Awards Service Contracts but FID Slips into 2020

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdermott-intl-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17524:1" rel="noopener">Mcdermott Intl (MDR US)</a> is down 73% over the course of two days following news that it had hired Alix Partners who are renowned as a turnaround advisor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> is also down 6.4% since the news broke after having fallen as much as 14.5% at one point yesterday. We spoke to the company and analyse the potential impact of a McDermott bankruptcy below.

Mcdermott Intl (MDR US) is down 73% over the course of two days following news that it had hired Alix Partners who are renowned as a turnaround advisor. Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) is also down 6.4% since the news broke after having fallen as much as 14.5% at one point yesterday. We spoke to the company and analyse the potential impact of a McDermott bankruptcy below.

Chiyoda: McDermott Troubles Hurt Sentiment but May Have Limited Direct Impact

As investors start eyeing the 2H of FY19, the key project on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a>'s radar is the expansion of Qatar's LNG complex from 77mtpa to 110mtpa which should see an FID being issued in late 2019 or early 2020. We believe investors should also be keeping an eye on developments in Russia, however, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24004:1" rel="noopener">Novatek PJSC (NVTK LI)</a>'s LNG ambitions are increasingly aggressive, perhaps driven by the deteriorating trade outlook between China and the US. The upcoming 2020 spinoff of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technipfmc-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27505:1" rel="noopener">TechnipFMC PLC (FTI FP)</a>'s LNG and new energy business could act as a further soft catalyst.

As investors start eyeing the 2H of FY19, the key project on Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)'s radar is the expansion of Qatar's LNG complex from 77mtpa to 110mtpa which should see an FID being issued in late 2019 or early 2020. We believe investors should also be keeping an eye on developments in Russia, however, as Novatek PJSC (NVTK LI)'s LNG ambitions are increasingly aggressive, perhaps driven by the deteriorating trade outlook between China and the US. The upcoming 2020 spinoff of TechnipFMC PLC (FTI FP)'s LNG and new energy business could act as a further soft catalyst.

Chiyoda: Russian LNG Plans Increasingly Aggressive With Transshipment Terminal Next

United Kingdom

TechnipFMC plc provides oilfield services. The Company offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. TechnipFMC serves customers worldwide.

TechnipFMC PLC (FTI FP)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Exxon's Mozambique LNG Project Awards Service Contracts but FID Slips into 2020

Exxon Mobil (XOM US) and partners awarded the key contracts for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, which makes the project's sanction almost...

Anish Kapadia

Chiyoda: McDermott Troubles Hurt Sentiment but May Have Limited Direct Impact

Mcdermott Intl (MDR US) is down 73% over the course of two days following news that it had hired Alix Partners who are renowned as a turnaround...

Mio Kato

Chiyoda: Russian LNG Plans Increasingly Aggressive With Transshipment Terminal Next

As investors start eyeing the 2H of FY19, the key project on Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)'s radar is the expansion of Qatar's LNG complex from 77mtpa to...

Mio Kato

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

Exxon's Mozambique LNG Project Awards Service Contracts but FID Slips into 2020

Exxon Mobil (XOM US) and partners awarded the key contracts for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, which makes the project's sanction almost...

Anish Kapadia

Chiyoda: McDermott Troubles Hurt Sentiment but May Have Limited Direct Impact

Mcdermott Intl (MDR US) is down 73% over the course of two days following news that it had hired Alix Partners who are renowned as a turnaround...

Mio Kato

Chiyoda: Russian LNG Plans Increasingly Aggressive With Transshipment Terminal Next

As investors start eyeing the 2H of FY19, the key project on Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)'s radar is the expansion of Qatar's LNG complex from 77mtpa to...

Mio Kato