Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Equity Bottom-Up

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.</li><li class="p1">But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.</li></ul>Analyst: David Meats

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity prices would drive sufficiently strong returns in the future to justify their initial excesses.But with crude prices now at once-in-a-generation lows and with a recovery still probably several quarters away, shale producers have been forced to adapt to an environment that few (if any) were built to profitably operate in.Analyst: David Meats

Teekay Tankers Ltd Class A / Equity Bottom-Up

Teekay companies came out with a set of results. Frankly, it is not about the results but about the corporate actions and the forward indicators of corporate changes that can be done. Detailed TK updates are available from the company’s investor portal in the usual high detail. See http://teekay.com/ … I only have a few key points to make, which I think cut to the chase. Most broker coverage has focused on TK LNG or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21078" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21078">Teekay Lng Partners Lp</a> , excepting the large recent Morgan Stanley report…

Teekay companies came out with a set of results. Frankly, it is not about the results but about the corporate actions and the forward indicators of corporate changes that can be done. Detailed TK updates are available from the company’s investor portal in the usual high detail. See http://teekay.com/ … I only have a few key points to make, which I think cut to the chase. Most broker coverage has focused on TK LNG or Teekay Lng Partners Lp , excepting the large recent Morgan Stanley report…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

 In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.  

United States

Teekay Corporation provides international crude oil and petroleum product transportation services to major oil companies, major oil traders, and government agencies.  The Company provides its services through a fleet of medium size oil tankers worldwide.

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Teekay Corp (TK US)

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures...

Charles De Trenck

Moat or Mother Fracker?

Exploration and production companies have long relied on capital markets to fund stellar growth, perhaps assuming that persistently high commodity...

Morningstar, Inc.

Teekay's Right Hand Left Hand Shuffle

Teekay companies came out with a set of results. Frankly, it is not about the results but about the corporate actions and the forward indicators of...

Charles De Trenck

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the...

Greg Gibbs

Does Fixed Income Have a Future?

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is...

ClearMacro

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