Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> shares have lost 18% to HK$478.80 by the end of today’s close since the beginning of July 2021 and has lost 35.0% since its peak in February this year. Tencent’s shares continue to slide over regulatory scrutiny over Chinese internet stocks. The Chinese regulators have widened their crackdown on the country’s internet sector with the latest crackdown aimed at the county’s education sector.Tencent has been making into headlines over the past few days with its music streaming arm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> being ordered to give up exclusive music licensing rights alongside a fine, its investments in online education and tutoring platforms such as Yuanfudao being targeted by Beijing regulators and the company suspending new user registrations on WeChat.As we have discussed in our previous insights, there is no sign that the Chinese regulators are slowing down with its antitrust crackdown on the country’s tech platforms and though the ongoing regulatory crackdown has already been priced into Tencent’s share price, we would strongly recommend being on the side lines as the ongoing probe could have a material impact on the company’s future earnings.

Tencent (700 HK) shares have lost 18% to HK$478.80 by the end of today’s close since the beginning of July 2021 and has lost 35.0% since its peak in February this year. Tencent’s shares continue to slide over regulatory scrutiny over Chinese internet stocks. The Chinese regulators have widened their crackdown on the country’s internet sector with the latest crackdown aimed at the county’s education sector.Tencent has been making into headlines over the past few days with its music streaming arm Tencent Music (TME US) being ordered to give up exclusive music licensing rights alongside a fine, its investments in online education and tutoring platforms such as Yuanfudao being targeted by Beijing regulators and the company suspending new user registrations on WeChat.As we have discussed in our previous insights, there is no sign that the Chinese regulators are slowing down with its antitrust crackdown on the country’s tech platforms and though the ongoing regulatory crackdown has already been priced into Tencent’s share price, we would strongly recommend being on the side lines as the ongoing probe could have a material impact on the company’s future earnings.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020. However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-pre-ipo-was-in-the-slow-stream-playing-catch-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the slow stream, playing catch-up</a>.In this note, we compare CVI with its main peer Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) and comment on the recent regulatory announcement with respect to TME.

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020. However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the slow stream, playing catch-up.In this note, we compare CVI with its main peer Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) and comment on the recent regulatory announcement with respect to TME.

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Airdoc Technology / Equity Capital Markets

In recent years, the value of AI medical imaging has become increasingly prominent. For example, the application of CT for diagnosis in COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the importance of imaging and played an immeasurable role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this context, many players in this industry have planned to start IPO in the capital market. On June 21, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-airdoc-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33524:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK) </a>filed its prospectus with the HKEX and officially started its IPO process. Airdoc is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. This insight mainly analyzed the business, the financial position and concerns of the Company.

In recent years, the value of AI medical imaging has become increasingly prominent. For example, the application of CT for diagnosis in COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the importance of imaging and played an immeasurable role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this context, many players in this industry have planned to start IPO in the capital market. On June 21, Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK) filed its prospectus with the HKEX and officially started its IPO process. Airdoc is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. This insight mainly analyzed the business, the financial position and concerns of the Company.

Pre-IPO Beijing Airdoc Technology - The Strength and the Concerns

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headline Developments</h2>Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.

Headline DevelopmentsAnother bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

Investors' concerns over increasingly expanding regulatory restrictions and the potential market intervention led to a rout of Chinese tech and education stocks over the last several trading sessions. The select 9 Chinese tech stocks I follow collectively lost USD320 billion in value over 20 July to 27 July.  While some of the regulatory risks were known from March 2021, ramifications of the potential value-destroying restrictions on the education companies, termination of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)'s</a> exclusive rights, and the suspension of new user registration for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s Wechat spook the market. Tencent's market cap has declined 19% during the seven-day period, which cannot be fully explained by the potential value lost from the recently announced regulatory measures, in my view.  Back in April (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-fintech-risk-is-lurking" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50512" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking</a>) I pointed out that Tencent shares could be overvalued by 20% on fintech risk alone.  The shares are down nearly 30% since then. I now believe the shares could be undervalued by 10%, notwithstanding the undefined regulatory risks ahead.  Having said that, catching a falling knife is not for the faint-hearted. These stocks rebounded on the US Wednesday trading session, possibly reflecting the sentiment "enough is enough." Bloomberg reported that the securities regulator assured select investment bankers that the education policies are not to be for other industries.     In this report, I summarize the announced regulatory events this year to date and share my thoughts on why the market may be over discounting Tencent's value by looking at the potential value impact of Tencent's fintech value (a reiteration from the April report) and the impact of the value decline of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> and Tencent Music.

Investors' concerns over increasingly expanding regulatory restrictions and the potential market intervention led to a rout of Chinese tech and education stocks over the last several trading sessions. The select 9 Chinese tech stocks I follow collectively lost USD320 billion in value over 20 July to 27 July.  While some of the regulatory risks were known from March 2021, ramifications of the potential value-destroying restrictions on the education companies, termination of Tencent Music (TME US)'s exclusive rights, and the suspension of new user registration for Tencent (700 HK)'s Wechat spook the market. Tencent's market cap has declined 19% during the seven-day period, which cannot be fully explained by the potential value lost from the recently announced regulatory measures, in my view.  Back in April (see Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking) I pointed out that Tencent shares could be overvalued by 20% on fintech risk alone.  The shares are down nearly 30% since then. I now believe the shares could be undervalued by 10%, notwithstanding the undefined regulatory risks ahead.  Having said that, catching a falling knife is not for the faint-hearted. These stocks rebounded on the US Wednesday trading session, possibly reflecting the sentiment "enough is enough." Bloomberg reported that the securities regulator assured select investment bankers that the education policies are not to be for other industries.     In this report, I summarize the announced regulatory events this year to date and share my thoughts on why the market may be over discounting Tencent's value by looking at the potential value impact of Tencent's fintech value (a reiteration from the April report) and the impact of the value decline of DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) and Tencent Music.          

Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Tencent: All Bets Are Off

Tencent’s shares went down quickly where it dropped 13.0% over the last few days and were oversold as investors reacted harshly to the ongoing...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments...

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Beijing Airdoc Technology - The Strength and the Concerns

This article mainly analyzed Airdoc Technology in terms of both the strength and the concerns through the perspectives of the business, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #42

Headline Developments: Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators...

Granite Bay Capital

Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife

Chinese tech stocks are reeling from the latest regulatory announcements. Tencent fell 19% in 7 days. Is the time ripe to catch a falling knife?...

Mitchell Kim

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