Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons. </li>
<li>As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech. </li>
<li>We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons. 
As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech. 
We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated.</li>
<li>The authorities have been turning from containing games to encouraging games.</li>
<li>We expect the stock has an upside of 34% and a price target of HK$700. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated.
The authorities have been turning from containing games to encouraging games.
We expect the stock has an upside of 34% and a price target of HK$700. Buy.


Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.


Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.</li>
<li>3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

Tencent's Q1 performance meets expectations, with new game launches and recovering consumption driving future growth. Analysts raise target price...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

SOUTHBOUND volumes pick up. Net flows drop into negative territory again for only the second week in a few months. Banks saw strong inflows. Tech...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated. We believe the authorities are turning from containing games to encouraging...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

​Tencent's Q1 performance meets expectations, with new game launches and recovering consumption driving future growth. Analysts raise target price...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

SOUTHBOUND volumes pick up. Net flows drop into negative territory again for only the second week in a few months. Banks saw strong inflows. Tech...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated. We believe the authorities are turning from containing games to encouraging...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

Tencent's Q1 performance meets expectations, with new game launches and recovering consumption driving future growth. Analysts raise target price...

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...