Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,180/1,173 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,205 points.</li><li>The medium-term trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottoming-out point within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the market has returned to a downtrend direction, and there is a possibility of dropping to a new low below 1,173.13 points, which was established on March 4. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,180/1,173 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,205 points.The medium-term trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, searching for the bottoming-out point within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.In the short term, the market has returned to a downtrend direction, and there is a possibility of dropping to a new low below 1,173.13 points, which was established on March 4. 

Watch for Signals from Speech by Fed Chair Powell, Alongside the US Feb. Non-Farm Payrolls Report

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels are at 1,193 and 1,185 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index has re- entered a short-term rally phase after making a new year-low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels are at 1,193 and 1,185 points.In the medium term, the trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.In the short term, the index has re- entered a short-term rally phase after making a new year-low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. 

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX's strategy team has a positive outlook on the Thai stock market in 1Q25.</li><li>The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de-ratings for high-growth stocks.</li><li>In contrast, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential shift toward tighter monetary policy creates an opportunity for capital to flow back into the Asian region. </li></ul>

KTX's strategy team has a positive outlook on the Thai stock market in 1Q25.The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de-ratings for high-growth stocks.In contrast, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential shift toward tighter monetary policy creates an opportunity for capital to flow back into the Asian region. 

Special Report: Stock Valuation - January 2, 2025

<ul><li>The 4Q24E earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover YoY but decline QoQ, particularly for major livestock companies (with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China), which are projected to turn from losses in 4Q23 to profits in 4Q24E.</li><li>This should be supported by continued momentum in profit margins due to lower raw material costs.</li><li>However, profits are expected to decline QoQ owing to the strong seasonal performance of the broiler export business in 3Q. </li></ul>

The 4Q24E earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover YoY but decline QoQ, particularly for major livestock companies (with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and China), which are projected to turn from losses in 4Q23 to profits in 4Q24E.This should be supported by continued momentum in profit margins due to lower raw material costs.However, profits are expected to decline QoQ owing to the strong seasonal performance of the broiler export business in 3Q. 

Agribusiness and Food Sector - DECEMBER 9, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX has upgraded our rating to Outperform (from Neutral), with the valuation metrics now reflecting a tactical view of limited downside risk (previously neutral) after the stock price decline of 6% over the past month.</li><li>The current fundamental value remains attractive, as the stock price has 20% upside from its fair value of Bt4.92 (using the earnings yield method with a required return of 9.4%, reflecting a target PER level of 11x).</li><li>The long-term growth outlook remains neutral, with 2-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 8%.</li></ul>

KTX has upgraded our rating to Outperform (from Neutral), with the valuation metrics now reflecting a tactical view of limited downside risk (previously neutral) after the stock price decline of 6% over the past month.The current fundamental value remains attractive, as the stock price has 20% upside from its fair value of Bt4.92 (using the earnings yield method with a required return of 9.4%, reflecting a target PER level of 11x).The long-term growth outlook remains neutral, with 2-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 8%.

Thaifoods Group - 3Q24 Core Profit Grew 557% YoY and 11% QoQ, Better than Expected

Thailand

Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited is the manufacturer and processor of poultry and swine products. The Company's business involves hatcheries, contract farming, raw chicken meat processing for export, and domestic distribution. Thaifoods Group operates in Southeast Asia.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB)

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Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB)

Watch for Signals from Speech by Fed Chair Powell, Alongside the US Feb. Non-Farm Payrolls Report

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,180/1,173 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,205...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: ECB Meeting - MARCH 6, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Stock Valuation - January 2, 2025

The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness and Food Sector - DECEMBER 9, 2024

The 4Q24E earnings of the agribusiness and food sector are expected to recover YoY but decline QoQ, particularly for major livestock companies

Krungthai XSpring

Thaifoods Group - 3Q24 Core Profit Grew 557% YoY and 11% QoQ, Better than Expected

The current fundamental value remains attractive, as the stock price has 20% upside from its fair value of Bt4.92 (using the earnings yield method...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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