Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) is primarily engaged in downstream oil refining, as well as the manufacture of petrochemical products.</li>
<li>TOP operates Thailand's largest complex oil refinery, with a capacity of 275 k bbl/day (accounting for c. 21% of the country's total oil refining capacity).</li>
<li>In addition, the company is expanding capacity through its clean fuel project, with the aim of raising capacity by c. 45% to 400 k bbl/day. </li>
</ul>


Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) is primarily engaged in downstream oil refining, as well as the manufacture of petrochemical products.
TOP operates Thailand's largest complex oil refinery, with a capacity of 275 k bbl/day (accounting for c. 21% of the country's total oil refining capacity).
In addition, the company is expanding capacity through its clean fuel project, with the aim of raising capacity by c. 45% to 400 k bbl/day. 


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 NP was in line, impacted by refinery maintenance and major unit shutdowns (lower utilization rate and market GIM), partly offset by stock gains and gain from bond buyback.</li><li>3Q25 NP was Bt2.15bn, in line (vs loss Bt4.2bn in 3Q24, –67% QoQ).</li><li>It was hit by shutdowns at CDU-3 (30 days) and major unit shutdowns (aromatics and lube plants, 45 days each), partly offset by stock and NRV gains of Bt1.58bn and bond buyback gain of Bt1.37bn.</li><li>We maintain 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) at +12% CAGR, supported by strong market GRM and improving financial position from deleveraging via asset monetization (Bt18.23bn, to complete in Dec-25) to cut high-cost debts and fund additional CAPEX for CFP, with an expected clear work plan under the budget to meet COD expected in 3Q28.</li></ul>

3Q25 NP was in line, impacted by refinery maintenance and major unit shutdowns (lower utilization rate and market GIM), partly offset by stock gains and gain from bond buyback.3Q25 NP was Bt2.15bn, in line (vs loss Bt4.2bn in 3Q24, –67% QoQ).It was hit by shutdowns at CDU-3 (30 days) and major unit shutdowns (aromatics and lube plants, 45 days each), partly offset by stock and NRV gains of Bt1.58bn and bond buyback gain of Bt1.37bn.We maintain 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) at +12% CAGR, supported by strong market GRM and improving financial position from deleveraging via asset monetization (Bt18.23bn, to complete in Dec-25) to cut high-cost debts and fund additional CAPEX for CFP, with an expected clear work plan under the budget to meet COD expected in 3Q28.

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): 3Q25 NP In Line On Stock Gain And One-Time Gain

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries, Meituan</li>
<li>The UST curve twisted flatter yesterday, with long-end yields declining on account of a solid auction for 5Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.49%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.98%.</li>
<li>Equities and risk assets gained on optimism over a US-China trade deal expected to be signed later this week.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries, Meituan
The UST curve twisted flatter yesterday, with long-end yields declining on account of a solid auction for 5Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.49%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.98%.
Equities and risk assets gained on optimism over a US-China trade deal expected to be signed later this week.


<ul><li>We expect 3Q25E net profit (NP) to be pressured by refinery maintenance and shutdowns of key units, leading to lower utilization and weaker market GIM.</li><li>We roll forward to a 2026 fair value of Bt36.75 and upgrade to “Neutral” (from “Underperform”; Bt35.00 prior), reflecting a more positive view on valuation and 2Y core EPS growth (+13% CAGR), in line with peers amid neutral tactical risk.</li><li>We estimate 3Q25E NP at Bt2.2bn (reversing from a Bt4.2bn net loss in 3Q24, –66% QoQ), pressured by maintenance shutdowns at CDU-3 (30 days), as well as the aromatics plant (45 days) and lube oil plant (45 days).</li></ul>

We expect 3Q25E net profit (NP) to be pressured by refinery maintenance and shutdowns of key units, leading to lower utilization and weaker market GIM.We roll forward to a 2026 fair value of Bt36.75 and upgrade to “Neutral” (from “Underperform”; Bt35.00 prior), reflecting a more positive view on valuation and 2Y core EPS growth (+13% CAGR), in line with peers amid neutral tactical risk.We estimate 3Q25E NP at Bt2.2bn (reversing from a Bt4.2bn net loss in 3Q24, –66% QoQ), pressured by maintenance shutdowns at CDU-3 (30 days), as well as the aromatics plant (45 days) and lube oil plant (45 days).

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): 3Q25E NP Boosted By Stock Gains And One-Off Items ...

<ul>
<li>We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale.</li>
<li>This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group's main oil refining vehicle.</li>
<li>TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent.</li>
</ul>


We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale.
This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance to state-owned PTT Public Company Limited, due to its position as the group's main oil refining vehicle.
TOP benefits from its close links with PTT, as TOP obtains feedstock from and sells refined products to its parent.


Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Thai Oil - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) is primarily engaged in downstream oil refining, as well as the manufacture of petrochemical products.

Lucror Analytics

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): 3Q25 NP In Line On Stock Gain And One-Time Gain

3Q25 NP was in line, impacted by refinery maintenance and major unit shutdowns (lower utilization rate and market GIM), partly offset by stock...

Krungthai XSpring

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries,...

Lucror Analytics

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): 3Q25E NP Boosted By Stock Gains And One-Off Items ...

We expect 3Q25E net profit (NP) to be pressured by refinery maintenance and shutdowns of key units, leading to lower utilization and weaker market...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. This is primarily driven by the company's strategic importance...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)