Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> demonstrated a 5-year CAGR of 16%/25% revenue/profit growth with an ROE averaging 20%.</li>
<li>FY23 surpassed our expectations with 17%/30% revenue and net profit growth. 4Q 2023 high season revenue and profit growth was an astounding 21%/75% YoY.</li>
<li>The stocks trades at 6.9x/6.2x PE FY23/FY24e with a 7.5% dividend yield (assuming ten centavos/dividend based on FY23 earnings for FY24 and a 50% payout ratio). </li>
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The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) demonstrated a 5-year CAGR of 16%/25% revenue/profit growth with an ROE averaging 20%.
FY23 surpassed our expectations with 17%/30% revenue and net profit growth. 4Q 2023 high season revenue and profit growth was an astounding 21%/75% YoY.
The stocks trades at 6.9x/6.2x PE FY23/FY24e with a 7.5% dividend yield (assuming ten centavos/dividend based on FY23 earnings for FY24 and a 50% payout ratio). 


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> is set to declare Q3 2023 earnings in the 2nd week of November. We expect the company to report a 9%/18% YoY revenue/net profit growth.</li>
<li>We expect a steady improvement in Bodegas W&amp;H and operations and overall gross profit margins to remain stable at 26-27%. </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e with a 5.1%/5.9% dividend yield and 10% of the market capitalization in cash. </li>
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The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) is set to declare Q3 2023 earnings in the 2nd week of November. We expect the company to report a 9%/18% YoY revenue/net profit growth.
We expect a steady improvement in Bodegas W&amp;H and operations and overall gross profit margins to remain stable at 26-27%. 
The stock is cheap at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e with a 5.1%/5.9% dividend yield and 10% of the market capitalization in cash. 


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): Preview Q3 2023, Steady Into The Q4 High Season

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM)</a> is a play on the imported liquor distribution business in the Philippines, with a &gt;74% marketshare conservatively growing at 12-15% CAGR.</li>
<li>Trading at 11.5x/10.0x FY21/22 PE with 35% of the market capitalization in cash ( implying an ex-cash PE of 7.5x), the stock is cheap with a significant margin of safety. </li>
<li>Value enhancing asset injection angle with potential for the chairman Lucio Co to inject his Bodegas William and Humbers (W&amp;H) stake into the listco.</li>
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The Keepers Holdings, Inc. (KEEPR PM) is a play on the imported liquor distribution business in the Philippines, with a &gt;74% marketshare conservatively growing at 12-15% CAGR.
Trading at 11.5x/10.0x FY21/22 PE with 35% of the market capitalization in cash ( implying an ex-cash PE of 7.5x), the stock is cheap with a significant margin of safety. 
Value enhancing asset injection angle with potential for the chairman Lucio Co to inject his Bodegas William and Humbers (W&amp;H) stake into the listco.


Keepers Holdings: Cheap Consumption Multibagger in the Philippines

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> conference call was upbeat, with the guidance of improved results from Bodegas W&amp;H and sequential seasonal improvement from H12023 to H2 2023.</li>
<li>Unrealized gross profits of 203 mn pesos ( H1 gross profit 1.8 bn pesos) due to in-transit goods from Bodegas W&amp;H should provide an upside to margins in H2 2023. </li>
<li>Trading at 8.54x/7.1x PE FY23e/24e and net cash with a dividend yield of 4.6%/5.3% FY23e/24e, a monopoly position in imported spirit distribution (&gt;70% Mkt share), a name worth exploring. </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) conference call was upbeat, with the guidance of improved results from Bodegas W&amp;H and sequential seasonal improvement from H12023 to H2 2023.
Unrealized gross profits of 203 mn pesos ( H1 gross profit 1.8 bn pesos) due to in-transit goods from Bodegas W&amp;H should provide an upside to margins in H2 2023. 
Trading at 8.54x/7.1x PE FY23e/24e and net cash with a dividend yield of 4.6%/5.3% FY23e/24e, a monopoly position in imported spirit distribution (&gt;70% Mkt share), a name worth exploring. 


Keepers Holdings: Q2 2023 Conference Call: Upbeat Good Momentum into H2 2023

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> reported 26% YoY revenue growth and 41% YoY profit growth for FY22. Based on our estimates, the stock trades at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e PE.</li>
<li>Net cash represents a healthy 21% of market capitalization, and given its strong profitability, the management seemed reasonably confident in maintaining its 50% payout ratio (5%/6% dividend yield FY24e/25e).</li>
<li>The management guided a structural industry uptrend with teens growth across all its spirits for FY23e/24e. We believe a multiple of 15x is a fair multiple for this company. </li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported 26% YoY revenue growth and 41% YoY profit growth for FY22. Based on our estimates, the stock trades at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e PE.
Net cash represents a healthy 21% of market capitalization, and given its strong profitability, the management seemed reasonably confident in maintaining its 50% payout ratio (5%/6% dividend yield FY24e/25e).
The management guided a structural industry uptrend with teens growth across all its spirits for FY23e/24e. We believe a multiple of 15x is a fair multiple for this company. 


Keepers Holdings: Q4 2022 Concall, Reiterate Positive Outlook for 2023

Philippines

Keepers Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of liquor such as wine, spirits, and other beverages. Keepers Holdings serves customers in Philippine.

The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield

We summarize the stellar results of KEEPR PM trading at 6.9x FY23 PE (net cash) and a 7.5% dividend yield with 5 Year - 25% CAGR profit growth

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM): Preview Q3 2023, Steady Into The Q4 High Season

Keepers Holdings is cheap at 7.7x/6.6x FY23e/24e with a 5.1%/5.9% dividend yield and 10% of the market capitalization in cash. We preview the...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings: Cheap Consumption Multibagger in the Philippines

Trading at 11.5x/10.0x FY21/22 PE with 35% of the market capitalization in cash ( implying an ex-cash PE of 7.5x), Keepers Holdings is a great...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings: Q2 2023 Conference Call: Upbeat Good Momentum into H2 2023

Trading at 8.54x/7.1x PE FY23e/24e, net cash with a dividend yield of 4.6%/5.3% FY23e/24e, a monopoly position in imported spirit distribution...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings: Q4 2022 Concall, Reiterate Positive Outlook for 2023

Keepers Holdings trades at 7.7x/6.6x PE FY23e/24e with 21% of its market cap in cash. With the industry growing structural at mid-teen levels , we...

Sameer Taneja