Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Cross Asset Strategy

Prabowo again squandered a chance in a debate to gain ground, as Widodo appeared more confident and in command.  Prabowo's incessant efforts to sow fear of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent.  Widodo's lead was intact as of late January, despite claims from two pollsters (Indomatrik, Median) who are demonstrably unreliable or even fraudulent.  Lippo Group owner James Riady suffered repudiation: after having testified in court that he met the Bekasi District chief by coincidence and did not discuss his Meikarta project with her, KPK prosecutors played a phone recording that shows otherwise.  BI has held rates steady, citing the current account deficit after a gaping January trade deficit.  The government continues its efforts to sack more than 2,000 civil servants who are corruption convicts.  Repsol discovered gas in South Sumatra. Politics: The second of five debates in the presidential election marked another missed opportunity for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto to gain ground on President Joko Widodo.  Instead, the incumbent again landed blows that hurt the retired general, highlighting his unfamiliarity with e-commerce jargon and drawing attention to his land assets measuring 340,000 ha.  For his part, Prabowo pointedly projected a conciliatory demeanor, perhaps to dispel perceptions that he is temperamental, but it squandered a chance to assail the incumbent and thereby persuade voters to opt for change.  Prabowo adhered to form by advocating protectionism and expansion of state involvement in the economy.  He used nearly every answer to disparage foreigners, which is an error: sowing suspicion of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent (Page 2) (Transcript translated by Ref Wkly, p. 8).  Hard‑line Islamic groups convened again in Jakarta (p. 3). Surveys: In the July 2014 election, the Center for Strategic Development and Policy Studies (Puskaptis) performed a Quick Count survey of ballot‑station results that declared Prabowo the winner, and the Association of Polling Firms (Persepsi) ousted Puskaptis from its ranks.  But the head, Hasan Yazid, has re‑emerged as the founder of Indomatrik, another purported polling firm.  Yazid claims to have findings showing Prabowo’s support on par with Widodo’s.  Along with supposed findings from another obscure agency, Median, this is injecting confusion into perceptions of the presidential election.  In fact, two reputable agencies determined in late January that Widodo’s lead was intact (p. 4).   Justice: In the Meikarta‑Lippo bribery scandal, prosecutors dispute the testimony provided in court last month by group owner James Riady (p. 5).  Information Minister Rudiantara faced questioning from the Election Oversight Agency (Bawaslu) for having jested, in an event with ministry personnel, about preferences for presidential tickets (p. 7).Policy News: Cabinet members are preparing measures that will finally force regional officials to sack civil servants convicted of corruption (p. 7). <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td>Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.</td></tr></tbody></table>Energy: Spain’s Repsol announced the largest gas discovery in 18 years – a reservoir in Musi Banyuasin, South Sumatra measuring two trillion cubic feet (p. 8).Economics: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.0% (p. 9).Appendix: The presidential candidates debated the topics of infrastructure, the environment and natural resources on 17 February (transcript and analysis, p. 9).

Prabowo again squandered a chance in a debate to gain ground, as Widodo appeared more confident and in command.  Prabowo's incessant efforts to sow fear of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent.  Widodo's lead was intact as of late January, despite claims from two pollsters (Indomatrik, Median) who are demonstrably unreliable or even fraudulent.  Lippo Group owner James Riady suffered repudiation: after having testified in court that he met the Bekasi District chief by coincidence and did not discuss his Meikarta project with her, KPK prosecutors played a phone recording that shows otherwise.  BI has held rates steady, citing the current account deficit after a gaping January trade deficit.  The government continues its efforts to sack more than 2,000 civil servants who are corruption convicts.  Repsol discovered gas in South Sumatra. Politics: The second of five debates in the presidential election marked another missed opportunity for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto to gain ground on President Joko Widodo.  Instead, the incumbent again landed blows that hurt the retired general, highlighting his unfamiliarity with e-commerce jargon and drawing attention to his land assets measuring 340,000 ha.  For his part, Prabowo pointedly projected a conciliatory demeanor, perhaps to dispel perceptions that he is temperamental, but it squandered a chance to assail the incumbent and thereby persuade voters to opt for change.  Prabowo adhered to form by advocating protectionism and expansion of state involvement in the economy.  He used nearly every answer to disparage foreigners, which is an error: sowing suspicion of foreigners does little to weaken his opponent (Page 2) (Transcript translated by Ref Wkly, p. 8).  Hard‑line Islamic groups convened again in Jakarta (p. 3). Surveys: In the July 2014 election, the Center for Strategic Development and Policy Studies (Puskaptis) performed a Quick Count survey of ballot‑station results that declared Prabowo the winner, and the Association of Polling Firms (Persepsi) ousted Puskaptis from its ranks.  But the head, Hasan Yazid, has re‑emerged as the founder of Indomatrik, another purported polling firm.  Yazid claims to have findings showing Prabowo’s support on par with Widodo’s.  Along with supposed findings from another obscure agency, Median, this is injecting confusion into perceptions of the presidential election.  In fact, two reputable agencies determined in late January that Widodo’s lead was intact (p. 4).   Justice: In the Meikarta‑Lippo bribery scandal, prosecutors dispute the testimony provided in court last month by group owner James Riady (p. 5).  Information Minister Rudiantara faced questioning from the Election Oversight Agency (Bawaslu) for having jested, in an event with ministry personnel, about preferences for presidential tickets (p. 7).Policy News: Cabinet members are preparing measures that will finally force regional officials to sack civil servants convicted of corruption (p. 7). Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.Energy: Spain’s Repsol announced the largest gas discovery in 18 years – a reservoir in Musi Banyuasin, South Sumatra measuring two trillion cubic feet (p. 8).Economics: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.0% (p. 9).Appendix: The presidential candidates debated the topics of infrastructure, the environment and natural resources on 17 February (transcript and analysis, p. 9).

Prabowo Errs Again; Widodo Lead Intact; Riady's Mei-Egg-Karta; BI Holds; Repsol's Find; Debate Text

Prabowo has yet to dent Widodo's 20-point lead in polls and, meanwhile, certain key macro-economic figures are finally swinging in the incumbent's favor.  Jakarta and Surabaya are linked by toll road -- after decades of work.  The Freeport mine nationalization went through, benefiting Widodo (but possibly no one else).  The Efta Cepa bodes well for other trade agreements in the works.  The Lippo Group scandal is escalating, but not yet affecting James Riady.  PT Toba Sejahtera Tbk suffered damaging NGO scrutiny.  Electoral authorities set the presidential debate schedule.  Politics: Recent economic trends, such as inflation, the exchange rate and the price of oil, are benefiting President Joko Widodo.  Employment is an area where the president remains vulnerable, but Prabowo Subianto’s new television ads on the topic may be backfiring.  Prabowo has focused on lamenting the lack of professional careers for college graduates – a remote concern for the bulk of voters (Page 2).  The General Election Commission (KPU) has secured agreements from the two presidential campaigns regarding topics and formats for televised debates in the coming months.  The challenge for Widodo will be to shield his running mate from questions on matters beyond his narrow field of Islamic jurisprudence (p. 2).  After prolonged wrangling with Gerindra, the Islamic Justice Welfare Party (PKS) finally named two nominees for vice governor of Jakarta; neither seem dynamic (p. 4). Surveys: President Joko Widodo's 20 percentage-point lead remained intact through the second week of December, according to a credible poll (p. 5).  Justice: Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) officials are scrutinizing State Minister for Sports and Youth Imam Nahrawi, after having arrested a deputy state minister for alleged kickbacks on grants to the National Sports Committee (Koni).  The affair could become an embarrassment for Widodo (p. 5).  KPK officials indicated the likelihood of pursuing a former Lippo Cikarang president director, but they have not yet conveyed any such signals about investigating group owner James Riady (p. 6).  An NGO alliance highlights conflicts of interest on the part of Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister Luhut Panjaitan (p. 7).Policy News: Officials signed a comprehensive partnership (Cepa) with four European states (including Switzerland and Norway) (p. 9).  The transaction to nationalize the Freeport mine concluded on 21 December.  The deal will benefit Widodo (and perhaps him alone) (p. 10). <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td>Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.</td></tr></tbody></table>Infrastructure: The linkage of the Trans Java Toll Road – first envisioned in 1978 – finally occurred on 20 December.  Opposition figures, noting that previous administrations had put the plans in place, dispute how much credit should accrue to Widodo; in fact, he was the first to expedite land acquisition and thereby overcome the chief obstacle (p. 12).

Prabowo has yet to dent Widodo's 20-point lead in polls and, meanwhile, certain key macro-economic figures are finally swinging in the incumbent's favor.  Jakarta and Surabaya are linked by toll road -- after decades of work.  The Freeport mine nationalization went through, benefiting Widodo (but possibly no one else).  The Efta Cepa bodes well for other trade agreements in the works.  The Lippo Group scandal is escalating, but not yet affecting James Riady.  PT Toba Sejahtera Tbk suffered damaging NGO scrutiny.  Electoral authorities set the presidential debate schedule.  Politics: Recent economic trends, such as inflation, the exchange rate and the price of oil, are benefiting President Joko Widodo.  Employment is an area where the president remains vulnerable, but Prabowo Subianto’s new television ads on the topic may be backfiring.  Prabowo has focused on lamenting the lack of professional careers for college graduates – a remote concern for the bulk of voters (Page 2).  The General Election Commission (KPU) has secured agreements from the two presidential campaigns regarding topics and formats for televised debates in the coming months.  The challenge for Widodo will be to shield his running mate from questions on matters beyond his narrow field of Islamic jurisprudence (p. 2).  After prolonged wrangling with Gerindra, the Islamic Justice Welfare Party (PKS) finally named two nominees for vice governor of Jakarta; neither seem dynamic (p. 4). Surveys: President Joko Widodo's 20 percentage-point lead remained intact through the second week of December, according to a credible poll (p. 5).  Justice: Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) officials are scrutinizing State Minister for Sports and Youth Imam Nahrawi, after having arrested a deputy state minister for alleged kickbacks on grants to the National Sports Committee (Koni).  The affair could become an embarrassment for Widodo (p. 5).  KPK officials indicated the likelihood of pursuing a former Lippo Cikarang president director, but they have not yet conveyed any such signals about investigating group owner James Riady (p. 6).  An NGO alliance highlights conflicts of interest on the part of Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister Luhut Panjaitan (p. 7).Policy News: Officials signed a comprehensive partnership (Cepa) with four European states (including Switzerland and Norway) (p. 9).  The transaction to nationalize the Freeport mine concluded on 21 December.  The deal will benefit Widodo (and perhaps him alone) (p. 10). Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.Infrastructure: The linkage of the Trans Java Toll Road – first envisioned in 1978 – finally occurred on 20 December.  Opposition figures, noting that previous administrations had put the plans in place, dispute how much credit should accrue to Widodo; in fact, he was the first to expedite land acquisition and thereby overcome the chief obstacle (p. 12).   

IDR, CPI, Oil, Trans-Java & Freeport Strengthen Widodo / Lippo Case Escalates / Efta Cepa / Debates

Indonesia

PT Toba Pulp Lestari Tbk manufactures pulp and viscose rayon fibers. The Company also manufactures and distributes products made of pulp and rayon fibers.  Toba Pulp's mill is located in Toba Samosir, North Sumatra.

Toba Pulp Lestari (INRU IJ)

Prabowo Errs Again; Widodo Lead Intact; Riady's Mei-Egg-Karta; BI Holds; Repsol's Find; Debate Text

Prabowo again squandered a chance in a debate to gain ground, as Widodo appeared more confident and in command. Prabowo's incessant efforts to sow...

Kevin O’Rourke

IDR, CPI, Oil, Trans-Java & Freeport Strengthen Widodo / Lippo Case Escalates / Efta Cepa / Debates

Prabowo has yet to dent Widodo's 20-point lead in polls and, meanwhile, certain key macro-economic figures are finally swinging in the incumbent's...

Kevin O’Rourke