Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Toho: 3D Investment Partners lifted stake to 21.2%, intensifying pressure on governance reforms amid repeated scandals and delayed committee findings.</li>
<li>Inui: Miri Capital built a 7.3% stake; real estate assets near Ginza could be key catalyst beyond cyclical shipping earnings.</li>
<li>Nihon Tokushu and Kitagawa: Both trade at low multiples with strong balance sheets; activist stakes suggest potential for event-driven value realisation.</li>
</ul>


Toho: 3D Investment Partners lifted stake to 21.2%, intensifying pressure on governance reforms amid repeated scandals and delayed committee findings.
Inui: Miri Capital built a 7.3% stake; real estate assets near Ginza could be key catalyst beyond cyclical shipping earnings.
Nihon Tokushu and Kitagawa: Both trade at low multiples with strong balance sheets; activist stakes suggest potential for event-driven value realisation.


Japan Activist Briefs | Governance Battles and Hidden Asset Plays

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> reported FY24 result, with revenue and net profit beating and operating profit missing guidance. FY24 revenue increased 6% YoY, driven by growth across all business segments.</li>
<li>The company is anticipating an upturn in revenue and operating profit in FY25. However, FY25 net profit is expected to fall due to the absence of extraordinary income.</li>
<li>The company has announced a share buy-back plan to purchase up to 2.5M shares for ¥5B from May 15, 2024 to August 30, 2024.  </li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) reported FY24 result, with revenue and net profit beating and operating profit missing guidance. FY24 revenue increased 6% YoY, driven by growth across all business segments.
The company is anticipating an upturn in revenue and operating profit in FY25. However, FY25 net profit is expected to fall due to the absence of extraordinary income.
The company has announced a share buy-back plan to purchase up to 2.5M shares for ¥5B from May 15, 2024 to August 30, 2024.  


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Mixed FY24 Result; Growth to Continue in FY25; Buyback Plan Announced

Japan

TOHO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is a wholesaler of medicine and medical tools and equipment.  The Company mainly sells to hospitals and pharmacies.  Toho's merchandise are nursing products mainly for elderly and handicapped, and these include pajamas and bedding products, wheelchairs, walkers, diapers, bathing products, and health foods.

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Toho Holdings (8129 JP)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Governance Battles and Hidden Asset Plays

Investment firms increase stakes in Japanese companies, pushing for governance reforms and potential value realization through activist involvement.

Mark Chadwick

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Mixed FY24 Result; Growth to Continue in FY25; Buyback Plan Announced

Medipal Holdings beat revenue and net profit expectations in FY24, but operating profit fell short. The company anticipates revenue and operating...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Governance Battles and Hidden Asset Plays

​Investment firms increase stakes in Japanese companies, pushing for governance reforms and potential value realization through activist involvement.

Mark Chadwick

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Mixed FY24 Result; Growth to Continue in FY25; Buyback Plan Announced

​Medipal Holdings beat revenue and net profit expectations in FY24, but operating profit fell short. The company anticipates revenue and operating...

Tina Banerjee

Investment firms increase stakes in Japanese companies, pushing for governance reforms and potential value realization through activist involvement.

Medipal Holdings beat revenue and net profit expectations in FY24, but operating profit fell short. The company anticipates revenue and operating...