FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through water</li><li>USDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in Japan</li><li>Whilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indices</li><li>On currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close </li><li>On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…</li><li>Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)</li></ul>

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through waterUSDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in JapanWhilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indicesOn currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>At 9M16</td>
<td>Cash</td>
<td>Securities</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>NIM (%)</td>
<td>Profit</td>
<td>LLP/loans(%)</td>
<td>LLP/profit(%)</td>
<td>ROA (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nishi-Nippon</td>
<td>454,094</td>
<td>1,869,789</td>
<td>6,366,571</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>25,326</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>0.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yamagu</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.

At 9M16
Cash
Securities
Loans
NIM (%)
Profit
LLP/loans(%)
LLP/profit(%)
ROA (%)


Nishi-Nippon
454,094
1,869,789
6,366,571
1.17
25,326
0.04
4.56
0.39


Yamagu

…

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the...

Kay Van-Petersen

Japan's Banks Can Lose 30% of Income

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

Japan's Nasty Margin Trend

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that...

Daniel Tabbush

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