Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.</li>
<li>Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.</li>
<li>Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.
Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.
Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

<ul>
<li>NVDA slight beat not enough to appease market, but strong AI outlook is positive.</li>
<li>Timing may be right to look at names like TEL and Disco again now NVDA de-risked</li>
<li>Qualcomm down after its IR day and concerns its future focus on Autos and IoT wont replace Apple.</li>
</ul>


NVDA slight beat not enough to appease market, but strong AI outlook is positive.
Timing may be right to look at names like TEL and Disco again now NVDA de-risked
Qualcomm down after its IR day and concerns its future focus on Autos and IoT wont replace Apple.


Japan Morning Connection: Will SPE Sentiment Begin to Rise?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. </li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. 


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

<ul>
<li>Higher yields leading to profit taking ahead of tomorrows CPI print.</li>
<li>TEL numbers show expected WFE growth despite its pivot away from China.</li>
<li>Good numbers from Softbank, as its SVF posts strong unrealized gains on its solid unlisted pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Higher yields leading to profit taking ahead of tomorrows CPI print.
TEL numbers show expected WFE growth despite its pivot away from China.
Good numbers from Softbank, as its SVF posts strong unrealized gains on its solid unlisted pipeline.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Reflects Concerns over Tomorrow's CPI Print

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). </li>
<li>Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.</li>
<li>What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


TEL beats its 1H25 guidance by 12% at Net Income level, increases FY25 Net Income forecasts by 10%, increases dividend by 10%, plus a small share buyback (0.8% of outstanding). 
Positive change in the product mix: Legacy capex (incl China) to decline in 2025, AI-related Capex to increase by ~50% YoY.
What’s not to like? The stock is trading at 21x FY25 EPS, 18x FY26, Consensus expects 34% EPS growth in FY25, 22% in FY26. 


Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Will SPE Sentiment Begin to Rise?

NVDA slight beat with promising AI outlook. TEL and Disco may benefit with NVDA de-risked. Qualcomm down post-IR day, doubts about future focus on...

Andrew Jackson

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Market Reflects Concerns over Tomorrow's CPI Print

Profit taking ahead of CPI report, TEL shows WFE growth despite its pivot away from China, Softbank's SVF shows strong unreaslised gains on its...

Andrew Jackson

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

​AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Will SPE Sentiment Begin to Rise?

​NVDA slight beat with promising AI outlook. TEL and Disco may benefit with NVDA de-risked. Qualcomm down post-IR day, doubts about future focus on...

Andrew Jackson

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Market Reflects Concerns over Tomorrow's CPI Print

Profit taking ahead of CPI report, TEL shows WFE growth despite its pivot away from China, Softbank's SVF shows strong unreaslised gains on its...

Andrew Jackson

Tokyo Electron Beats Its 2Q25 (Sep-24), Raises FY25 Forecast, Increases Dividend, and a Buyback

​TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...

Nicolas Baratte

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

NVDA slight beat with promising AI outlook. TEL and Disco may benefit with NVDA de-risked. Qualcomm down post-IR day, doubts about future focus on...

TEL exceeds 1H25 guidance, raises forecasts and dividend, with positive product mix shift towards AI-related Capex. Stock trading at attractive...