Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD18,547m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fujikura, Kioxia, Keyence, Tokyo Electron, IHI, Socionext, Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Fujikura.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD18,547m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fujikura, Kioxia, Keyence, Tokyo Electron, IHI, Socionext, Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Fujikura.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 31st): Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Opposition coalition forming against Takaichi, but unlikely to succeed given vast policy differences</li>
<li>Samsung big beat this morning shows the memory super cycle may be a real thing</li>
<li>Softbank to surge with ARM architecture used in latest Broadcom/NVDA multi-year deal for ASIC</li>
</ul>


Opposition coalition forming against Takaichi, but unlikely to succeed given vast policy differences
Samsung big beat this morning shows the memory super cycle may be a real thing
Softbank to surge with ARM architecture used in latest Broadcom/NVDA multi-year deal for ASIC


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Dip Buying Likely After Wobble from Takaichi Political Challenge

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/997/original/2020-06-15_11-08-56.png?1592186965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139997"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-1-altman-z-scores" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40180" rel="noopener">Part 1</a> looked at the time-worn Altman-Z Score for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. In Part 2 will we turn our attention to the cash flow statement starting with the 'lifeblood' of all businesses - Operating Cash Flow.
ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING - Despite the sacrosanctity in some quarters of discounted cash flow analysis, for valuation purposes, our preference is to use accrual accounting. As Professor Stephen Penman states, "Accrual accounting brings the future forward in time and anticipates future cash flows."  Nevertheless, cash flow accounting, and the level of accounting accruals, can provide early insights into periodic stress. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)'s</a> Accruals (Operating Income less Operating Cash Flow) as a percentage of period-end market capitalisation correlate with the company's Relative Price Score over the last thirty years. Further Insights in this series will continue to 'mine'  the Cash Flow statement by exploring Financing Cash Flows and the Working Capital Cycle.
REFORMULATED CASH FLOWSTATEMENTS - Our Operating Cash Flow calculation is derived from each company's Balance Sheet and Income Statement for periods of up to twenty-eight years. Cash Flow items relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flow and Investing Cash Flow, which includes Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Cash flows relating to financing activities are divided into Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow. The reformulated Balance Sheets, Income and Cash Flow Statements follow a clean-surplus relationship. All three Statements are fully articulated to include items of Other Comprehensive Income which are added to or subtracted from Shareholders' Equity. 
</div>UNIVERSE - The universe for this Insight comprises the 614 Japanese companies with a market capitalisation excluding Treasury Stock over ¥100 million and for which we have at least two years of cash flow data.  Five non-financial companies, which have significant financial subsidiaries (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>), have been excluded from this analysis.


Source: Japan Analytics
STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. Part 1 looked at the time-worn Altman-Z Score for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. In Part 2 will we turn our attention to the cash flow statement starting with the 'lifeblood' of all businesses - Operating Cash Flow.
ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING - Despite the sacrosanctity in some quarters of discounted cash flow analysis, for valuation purposes, our preference is to use accrual accounting. As Professor Stephen Penman states, "Accrual accounting brings the future forward in time and anticipates future cash flows."  Nevertheless, cash flow accounting, and the level of accounting accruals, can provide early insights into periodic stress. Nissan Motor (7201 JP)'s Accruals (Operating Income less Operating Cash Flow) as a percentage of period-end market capitalisation correlate with the company's Relative Price Score over the last thirty years. Further Insights in this series will continue to 'mine'  the Cash Flow statement by exploring Financing Cash Flows and the Working Capital Cycle.
REFORMULATED CASH FLOWSTATEMENTS - Our Operating Cash Flow calculation is derived from each company's Balance Sheet and Income Statement for periods of up to twenty-eight years. Cash Flow items relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flow and Investing Cash Flow, which includes Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Cash flows relating to financing activities are divided into Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow. The reformulated Balance Sheets, Income and Cash Flow Statements follow a clean-surplus relationship. All three Statements are fully articulated to include items of Other Comprehensive Income which are added to or subtracted from Shareholders' Equity. 
UNIVERSE - The universe for this Insight comprises the 614 Japanese companies with a market capitalisation excluding Treasury Stock over ¥100 million and for which we have at least two years of cash flow data.  Five non-financial companies, which have significant financial subsidiaries (Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)), have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 2 - Operating Cash Flow & Accruals

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

Towards the end of 2018 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a>'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge, the stock price has rebounded 53.9% as the company posted excellent results at 4Q and guidance, while conservative, was for continued healthy earnings.Having visited the company today, we believe earnings should continue to be strong and actually strengthen over the next few years with MODEC likely to start running into capacity constraints over the course of this year.

Towards the end of 2018 Modec Inc (6269 JP)'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge, the stock price has rebounded 53.9% as the company posted excellent results at 4Q and guidance, while conservative, was for continued healthy earnings.Having visited the company today, we believe earnings should continue to be strong and actually strengthen over the next few years with MODEC likely to start running into capacity constraints over the course of this year.

Japan

Toyo Engineering Corporation is a plant engineering firm operating worldwide. The Company constructs industrial plants including chemical fertilizer, oil refining, petrochemical, and nuclear plants.  Toyo Engineering, a member of Mitsui Group, also builds industrial systems such as production, distribution, and environment management systems.

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Toyo Engineering (6330 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 31st): Advantest, Kobe Bussan, Disco, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Kobe Bussan (3038 JP), Disco (6146 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Dip Buying Likely After Wobble from Takaichi Political Challenge

Softbank may see upside from US Quantum Computing surge. Tesla scaling back production plans for Optimus may cause some pullback in Harmonic Drive....

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 2 - Operating Cash Flow & Accruals

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated...

Campbell Gunn

MODEC: Add

Towards the end of 2018 Modec Inc (6269 JP)'s share price dropped 46.5% as the price of crude oil also cratered, falling 44.4% . Since that plunge,...

Mio Kato

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